West Ham United: Analysis of Top Four Chances, Run-In Predictions


West Ham United looked like they were going to shock the footballing world at times this season. They spent most of the back half of the 2021 calendar year in and amongst not only the Euro competition qualification spots but firmly in the top 4 often. Ironically for The Irons, the distraction of the UEFA Europa League affected their small first-team squad. It affected their Premier League performances badly and they have now slipped out of serious contention for that 4th spot and Champions League qualification.

Not all is lost, however. The Hammers can still make a stunning appearance in next season’s Champions League. They are in the quarter-finals of the Europa League and the winners of that competition enter the Champions League group stage as well. In this series, Paul & I are analyzing the run-in for the European competition hopefuls. Liverpool & City is way out in front, so we haven’t bothered with them & Chelsea looks a pretty sure thing in third place.

We will look at the current standings, attempt to predict the results of the remaining matches for each side to see if we can gauge how the top of the Premier League table might look come the final whistle on May 21st.

Current Standings for European Places

4th  Arsenal FC  28 matches played, +13 goal differential, 54 pts

5th Tottenham Hotspur 29 matches played, +11 goal differential, 51 pts

6th  Manchester United 29 matches played, +8 goal differential, 50 pts

7th West Ham 30 matches played, +10 goal differential, 48 pts

8th Wolverhampton Wanderers  30 matches played, +5 goal differential, 46 pts

For the uninitiated 4th spot lands you in the Champions League & fifth and sixth get you a spot in the Europa League. Seventh gets you a place in the ugly step-sister of both of the competitions, the soulless shameless money grab that is the Europa Conference League.

Run In Predictions

Sun Apr 3, Everton, H, W, 4-0

Sun Apr 10, Brentford, A, W, 2-1

Sun Apr 17, Burnley, H, D, 1-1

Sun Apr 24, Chelsea, A, L, 0-3

Sun May 1, Arsenal, H, L, 0-1

Sat May 7, Norwich, A, D, 1-1

Sun May 15, Man City, H, L, 1-2

Championship Sunday, May 22, Brighton, A, W, 5-0

Final numbers: 59 pts, GD +15


Hammers Bottom Line

West Ham ‘s 2021/22 season started with a bang but will end in a puff of smoke in the Premier League. If my predictions hold water, they will finish on 59 points. Nowhere near enough to challenge for that fourth spot. I must add, I factored in a deep run in the Europa League in these predictions. I have a funny feeling that this season could still end in Champions League qualification, just not via the Premier League.

Top Four/European Football Chances Analysis Series

United   Arsenal FC    Tottenham    Wolves    West Ham

Stuart Kavanagh is an up-and-coming sports journalist from Melbourne, Australia. Along with being the owner of the sports and entertainment website thepyrrhic.com, he is also the co-host of the ‘After Extra Time’ podcast. Football mad, he is always down for debate and discussion at @stueyissickofit on Twitter.


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