The Illinois Fighting Illini tournament chances aren’t dead yet. But they are in critical condition and mandating life support. Everything can change in a New York minute. On Monday the Illini were sitting pretty with an RPI of 10 and all the preseason concerns about how bad the Illini might or might not be were put to rest. The Braggin Rights rivalry win put those fears to bed. After the first two conference games, the Illini looked like a 10-8 or 9-9 at worst in league play kind of team.
Well, both Mizzou and Oregon dropped out of the polls along with the Illini this week. That severely damages the Illini tournament resume:
RPI: 22. I bet you can guess why it fell 12 spots in a couple days! Still it’s hard to keep a RPI top 25 out of the tourney
Key wins: they need to beat at least two of the following: #4 Michigan State (RPI 9), #3 Wisconsin (RPI 1), #13 Ohio State and #20 Iowa to get something, anything on the resume. Missouri and Indiana are all the Illini have to show right now, and that’s really not much at all. Illinois gets the Badgers at home, MSU, OSU and Iowa twice. That’s seven opportunities to pick up a signature win. Going 3-4 or better in that stretch should be enough to solidify a bid. Although I’m optimistic they can pull off a 2-5 in this. The Illini will beat somebody though, they’ll get at least one more win over a ranked team this season. Even if the Rayvonte Rice injury is serious and he’s out for awhile, they’ll still beat somebody.
Bad losses: Northwestern. This is probably worse than the UIC loss of 2010. And that’s really saying something as that’s the worst Illini loss of a generation. Don’t be surprised if NU finishes 2-16 or 3-15 in conference. That’s how bad it is. It’s not just the tournament profile damage, it’s how disgustingly ugly the game was to watch as well. NU played hideous; just less hideous than the Illini. The Georgia Tech loss is pretty bad too. Illinois has looked a little train-wreckish on the road this season.
Looking at the games versus non-ranked opponents on the schedule: Indiana will be looking for revenge at their place, there’s two with Nebraska, home dates with Michigan and Purdue, and trips to Minnesota and Penn State. Hard to forecast, especially so until we know the extent of Rice’s injury, but I’ll say they go 3-4 in this stretch. That would put the Illini at 5-9 in the remaining games, finishing up at 7-11 in conference. Sounds about right.
Currently, in our latest bracketology we have the Illini as facing Arizona State in one of the first four play-in games to potentially grab the last spot. Of course, the Illini fortunes will rise and fall numerous times between now and then
Paul M. Banks is the owner of The Sports Bank.net, an affiliate of Fox Sports. He’s also an analyst for multiple news talk radio stations across the country; with regular weekly segments discussing: Illinois, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Bears and Bulls on NBC and Fox Sports Radio. President Barack Obama follows him on Twitter (@paulmbanks)