By Paul Schmidt
Yes, it’s the most gambled on sport in the US. Yes, there’s guys telling you what to bet on everywhere. The difference between them and I? I’ll be right. And I’m funnier. And better looking.
Every week I’ll be picking 4 NFL games to wager on via the point spread, and the reason why as well. It’ll be the tastiest matchups I can find.
Week 1, just like in college football, is the best week to put together a good run against the sports book (or…your bookie…ummm…not that I condone that), so tune in early on!
Kansas City +13 @ Baltimore
For one, it’s time to dispense with the idea that there’s some kind of home field advantage for most NFL teams to work with. There really isn’t any more, whether it’s due to fans being sick of paying the exorbitant NFL prices and staying home (thus giving the seats to less vocal and hardcore fans) or because the new stadiums jsut are too acoustically sound to create a noise advantage (remember, many of these arenas make a looooot of money on concerts now), the fact is that teams win just as much at home as they do on the road.
In fact, when you factor in road underdogs, they beat the spread last season something like 250% of the time. That’s a fact!
I like this Chiefs team…they have some very good offensive talent, and even if Matt Cassel can’t go, Tyler Thigpen is better than you think. They have some solid players at the skill positions on both sides of the ball, anda even if they’re offense has trouble scoring, does anyone have THAT much confidence in the Ravens’ offense to win by two touchdowns?
Detroit +13 @ New Orleans
See above. The difference is that the Saints DO get a boost from the Superdome, but that won’t help that their defense is still pretty crappy.
If you really are a betting man, I’d parlay Detroit with the “over” for this game, which is only 48.5. One thing I can tell you to count on for sure is that there will be a TON of points on the board in this game.
San Francisco +6 @ Arizona
Starting to see a trend here? I like the 49ers to win this game outright.
Why, you say? The Cardinals were the Super Bowl rep from the NFC last year, you say! Well, the Super Bowl loser for the past 304 seasons haven’t made the playoffs the next year. Seriously. Look it up!
I think this is the start of the fall for the Cards, and there’s a reason why I drafted so many of them on my fantasy teams. Because I don’t think they are going to be very good. Wait…those don’t go together…
In all seriousness, Frank Gore will have a good game, his backup Glen Coffee should contribute, and I like the 49er WRs even without Michael Crabtree in the fold.
Green Bay -3.5 at home, over Chicago
I have some serious issues with the Bears defense. I’m not a fan. I think that Aaron Rogers will totally be able to exploit the Bears secondary, which didn’t look that good all preseason. Now, I’m certainly not saying that I don’t think the Bears won’t score, I just don’t think they’ll score enough — I like the Pack’s D just a hair better than I like the Bears’.
Again…if you’re looking for a sweet parlay, I’d take a peak at the Pack and the over in this game, as it’s only 46.5. That seems ridiculously low, and I’d expect that they could blow by that by halftime.
Week 1, it’s always fun! Good luck, happy betting, and as always, be careful out there!