It’s the final week of the regular season and the winner of the NFC North comes down to the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears who have combined to lose 14 games this season.
The Packers are fresh off a disheartening loss at home to the stumbling Pittsburgh Steelers while the Bears are licking their wounds after a 54-11 shellacking courtesy of the Philadelphia Eagles.
Believe it or not, this is what sets up Championship Week from the cold confines of the upper Midwest.
Update: Quarterback Aaron Rodgers will make his return from a broken collarbone.
Chicago Bears (8-7) Analysis: First-year head coach Marc Trestman has to admit that it’s been a bumpy ride in the Windy City. After starting the year 3-0, the Bears went 5-7 to somehow be in the driver’s seat for a playoff push. With a ton of help from Aaron Rodgers’ collarbone and the Lions’ ineptitude of acting like a normal football team, the Bears probably are the best football team in the division.
The reason it hurts so bad to say the Bears are the best team in the division is their blatantly obvious flaw; they can’t stop any running back in the league right now. Chicago’s 32nd ranked rush defense gives up 161.5 yards on the ground per game and it doesn’t appear to be getting better anytime soon. (It’s dead last in the NFL) This isn’t the same non-running Packers team either as they rack up 131.7 yards per game (7th in the league).
Where the Bears have a significant edge is on offense because their play-makers are a unique combination of speed and size. One reason back-up Josh McCown shined while Jay Cutler was out is because running back Matt Forte, tight end Martellus Bennett and wide receiver combo Brandon Marshall/Alshon Jeffery are freaks of nature. With as beat up as the Packers are on the defensive side, it’s going to be hard stopping this foursome.
Green Bay Packers (7-7-1) Analysis: If you thought the Bears’ path to this game was perplexing, the Packers is downright unexplainable. After Rodgers went down in a loss to the Bears on November 4th, the Packers went five games without a win. They proceeded to squeak out a win versus the Atlanta Falcons, completed an improbable comeback on the Dallas Cowboys and fell to the Steelers in a game they could have easily won. Yet here they are, fighting for a playoff spot.
Paralleling the Packers quirky second half of the season is quarterback Matt Flynn. Flynn somehow couldn’t stick on the roster of the awful Oakland Raiders or Buffalo Bills, but he can somehow give a makeshift Packers offense life at times. With Flynn at the helm, Green Bay has maintained one of the better offenses in the league with 263.7 passing yards per game (7th in the league) and 131.7 rushing yards per game (8th). All bets are off now as Rodgers returns to take over a team that was 5-2 when he left.
The play of the defense has been just as much a mystery as who’s actually playing in it week to week. Green Bay will be without star linebacker Clay Matthews who re-injured the thumb he just had surgery on. For this unit to be successful, they will need to get to the Bears’ Cutler early and often, something the team has been able to do a great job of in the past.
Brutally Honest Prediction: Green Bay 34 Chicago 27
The return of Rodgers will be the difference in this one. Not only is he an immensely better quarterback than Flynn, he makes just about everyone better around him including the defense. With the Bears rush defense utterly useless, there’s no way Chicago can score enough points in this one to take down a rusty Rodgers who will still be adequate enough.
TV Coverage: FOX 3:25 PM CT; Joe Buck (play-by-play), Troy Aikman (color) and Pam Oliver (sidelines).
Betting Lines: Green Bay favored by 3.0 points and the over/under set at 52.5
2013 Record straight up: 10-4-1
2013 Record against the spread: 10-5
2013 Record in over/under: 10-5
Week 16 Pick Redux: Predicted the Steelers to win 27-24 over the Packers (actually PIT 38 GB 31); Hit straight up, against the spread (+2.5) and the over (45).
Who do you think will take the NFC North crown? Will the Packers or Bears make any noise in the playoffs? Let me know by commenting below.
Nick Grays is a senior writer at the Sports Bank where he covers the Wisconsin Badgers and Green Bay Packers. He also enjoys sharing Fantasy Advice and pretends to be a Golf expert from time-to-time. Follow him on Twitter by clicking here or visit his blog Nick Knows Best. If social media is not your thing, shoot him an email at grays@uwalumni.com.
*Pictures obtained from chicagonow.com