Wednesday night brings the first of the two annual basketball versions of the Land of Lincoln Trophy game as the #16 Illinois Fighting Illini basketball team (13-5, 4-1) visits the Northwestern Wildcats (8-8, 0-5). The Illini haven’t been as dominant at Welsh-Ryan Arena in recent years, as you might think, given the disparity in historical success of the two in-state Big Ten programs.
That said, Illinois is massively favored for this midweek tip, so let’s break it all down!
By the Numbers
ESPN match-up predictor gives the Illini a 73.2% chance of winning this 7:30 pm tip on BTN. Illini basketball are currently registering the following rankings: Kenpom 7, Net 10, 16 in both the AP and the Coaches (although they should move up when the polls come out later on Monday afternon).
Meanwhile the Wildcats are: Kenpom 65, Net 69
In case you’re wondering why this Illini basketball team is lower in the polls than in the other metrics/ranking systems, well the answer is simple. They have three losses on the season, while all these teams above them have two losses or less, but the Illini losses are to very good teams.
Illinois has some good wins, and an elite strength of schedule. Their offense is extremely efficient and effective.
No Home Court Advantage at the Welsh
Opposing Big Ten fan bases taking over Northwestern home games, for revenue sports, is a tale as old as time. With Illini basketball, this phenomena is even more pronounced, for obvious reasons.
Expect about 60% to 80% orange in the crowd this weekend.
Northwestern is going to need a monster rest of this month, and February, and March for that matter, otherwise they will be missing the postseason yet again.
Right now they look like a lock to be in the dreaded Wednesday night (actually, this year, with all the conference expansion, there is even a Tuesday now) session of the Big Ten Tournament.
Defense.
The second main reason, like salesman Gil Gunderson on The Simpsons, they can’t close. Still winless in the league, in five tries, the Wildcats held second half leads in four of those games. One of those Ls was in overtime, with the other three were of only a two possession margin.
However, getting close only counts in bocce ball, and the Cats are on track to finish with yet another losing conference record. for the eighth time in Chris Collins’ nine years.
Illini BasketBALKAN
Once again kudos to Illini basketball Brad Underwood for making the orange jumpsuit happen. He knows exactly what he’s doing in recruiting that part of the world.
Zvonimir Ivisic drained two 3-pointers, in the 75-69 win at Iowa to move into a tie for the national lead among 7-footers with seven games with multiple treys this season.
Andrej Stojakovic had his 10th game of the season scoring in double-digits (three straight).
David Mirkovic achieved his Sixth game of the season with 10+ boards.
Nick Martinelli Stat Sheet
If current trends hold, Martinelli is poised to join Jerry Lucas (Ohio State: 1959-60, 1960-61), Alan Henderson (Indiana: 1994-95), and Zach Edey (Purdue: 2022-23, 2023-24) as the only Big Ten players to ever record 23-plus points and six-plus rebounds per game on at least 58% shooting in a season.
Could he be on track to follow in the footsteps of Brooks Barnhizer, and become a second round pick in the NBA Draft?
Prediction: Illini basketball 85, Northwestern 70
Every other year or so, this place is a house of horrors for Illinois.
However, this Illini basketball team is 5-2 on the road so far, and the visitors’ top three nationally ranked offense vs the home side’s defensive woes?
It feels like we already know what’s going to happen here.
Freshman guard Keaton Wagler, a first round prospect in the NBA Draft, should go off.
Paul M. Banks is the Founding Editor of The Sports Bank. He’s also the author of “Transatlantic Passage: How the English Premier League Redefined Soccer in America,” and “No, I Can’t Get You Free Tickets: Lessons Learned From a Life in the Sports Media Industry.”
He currently contributes to USA Today’s NFL Wires Network, RG.org and Ratings.org. His past bylines include the New York Daily News, Sports Illustrated and the Chicago Tribune. His work has been featured in numerous outlets, including the Wall Street Journal, Forbes and the Washington Post.