Observing and analyzing the 2022 Illini football team feels like reflecting on the 2011 edition. That team, which started 6-0, finished 6-6 in what would prove to be Ron Zook’s final season. No other college football team, anywhere, started 6-0 and ended up 6-6.
This current Illini team started 7-1, but has now come down crashing back to Earth, losing to two mediocre teams, at home, when the Big Ten West division was there for the taking. Now, barring a very substantial upset at Northwestern, on rivalry Saturday, they’ll finish this campaign up at 8-4.
Saturday, Nov. 26
2:30 p.m. CT – Illinois vs. Northwestern (WGN 720; Big Ten Network)
Spread: Illini -14, Money Line -600, Over/Under 37
ESPN Matchup Predictor Illini 81.8% win
Illini Bowl Game Projections: go here
Illini Football History Articles: Bowl Games QBs, 1980-Present Current Whereabouts of Every Living Head Coach
Northwestern Wildcats (1-10, 1-8)
Much, if not most, of the fan base seems to have soured on Northwestern Head Coach Pat Fitzgerald now. That’s the part of the fan base that is still left, as a big portion of the purple hearts have just checked out entirely. (This will be a de facto Illini home game)
Easy to see why, as the program’s results are so down nowadays that they are, more or less, way back in the dark ages of the 1980s and 1970s. They gave gone 4-19, (2-15 in the league) since their Citrus Bowl win over Auburn, following the 2020 season.
Unless they can spring a major upset on Small Business Saturday, Northwestern will have then gone 1-8 in the Big Ten in three of the past four seasons. Losing here will see the Cats finish 1-11 this season, having dropped 16 of their last 17.
Defensive Coordinator Jim O’Neil has been nothing short of a disaster hire, and if you’re wondering where and when specifically, that Pat Fitzgerald lost the base, it was basically when O’Neil was retained.
I just don’t see how a defense this bad, a unit that made even Iowa’s offense looks good, can contain Chase Brown, who’s been the nation’s leading rush for most of the season. He flies under the radar, and we covered that already, over at this link
Also, how will Northwestern’s third choice at quarterback, Cole Freeman, get anything against an Illini defense this highly rated?
Fitzgerald really needs to clean house this off-season, and he can start by sacking both coordinators, as Mike Bajakian hasn’t worked out either.
Will he do it though? Lord knows he definitely let Mick McCall stick around far too long.
The end of this season can’t come soon enough, as this program has serious downward trajectory right now.
Top NFL Draft Prospect: OL Peter Skoronski, profiled here
Illinois Fighting Illini (7-4, 4-4)
It’s just a shame that Illinois squandered their division title opportunity, because it won’t likely come around again. The division will never be this down again, and then of course, we’ll have realignment in due course. The idea being that divisional disparities like we have now will go away.
But there would have been nothing wrong with Illinois getting a banner by beating up on a weakened league. It’s exactly what the 2001 Big Ten championship team did, as the conference was down that year and the Illini took advantage.
That said, the Illini still have plenty of fight, as evidenced in how they nearly pulled off a major upset in Ann Arbor this past Saturday. They got jobbed by the refs in that one, and Bret Bielema had no problem expressing his awareness of that.
Despite the recent three game slide, Illinois still has a very special no name defense, one that has been ranked tops in the nation, most of the year.
Defensive Coordinators Ryan Walters is one of the top coordinators in the nation, and he leads a unit led by Bednarik Award semifinalists CB Devon Witherspoon and DT Jer’Zhan Newton.
Illinois and Alabama are the only teams with two Bednarik semifinalists, which lists the top 20 defenders in the nation.
Illinois ranks in the top 10 in 17 major defensive categories:
1st in passing efficiency defense (91.8), 2nd in interceptions (17), 2nd in total defense (258.6), 2nd in touchdowns allowed (14),3rd in scoring defense (13.1), 3rd in rushing touchdowns allowed (6), 3rd in passing touchdowns allowed (8), 3rd in passes defended (74), 3rd in yards per pass attempt (5.4), 4th in red zone touchdown percentage (40.0%), 6th in takeaways (24), 6th in third down defense (28.1%), 6th in fewest first downs allowed (155), 7th in passing defense (165.3), 7th in rushing defense (93.4),9th in fewest red zone attempts allowed (25), 9th in third down conversions against (43)
There is much more at stake here than just Abe Lincoln’s hat. The Illini haven’t finished above .500 in the league since the 2007 Rose Bowl season. A win here and that decade and a half drought comes to an end. It says so much about this program that even in this season that ends up being rather disappointing, it’s still a much better campaign than what we’re used to.
Top NFL Draft Prospect: CB Devon Witherspoon, profiled here
Prediction: Illini 28, Northwestern 10
Typically, the team with the better record wins this one, but it’ll be close. Tommy DeVito is too efficient and productive, Chase Brown is too good and Northwestern overall is just too bad, for an upset special to occur. But look for the Illini to struggle putting the Cats away until near the end.
Paul M. Banks is the Owner/Manager of The Sports Bank and author of “Transatlantic Passage: How the English Premier League Redefined Soccer in America,” as well as “No, I Can’t Get You Free Tickets: Lessons Learned From a Life in the Sports Media Industry.”
He has regularly contributed to WGN News, Sports Illustrated and the Chicago Tribune, and he co-hosts the After Extra Time podcast. Follow him and the website on Twitter and Instagram.