By Jake McCormick
Come 6:30 tonight, we officially wake up in Green Bay Packer GM Ted Thompson’s Christmas morning.
Perhaps the most notorious “build through the draft” executive in the NFL, Thompson routinely collects draft picks like baseball cards by moving down, won’t hesitate to take the best player available as long as it isn’t a quarterback, and has made his money finding making diamonds out of his stockpile of late-round carbon picks.
So when I say that Thompson has one of the most well-known draft strategies amongst anyone who pays attention to football, I also mean that it’s nearly impossible to predict where he chooses to go with a first or second round pick, unless it’s in the top 10.
Last year, Thompson shocked the NFL world by trading into the first round to pick Clay Matthews. A Pro Bowl appearance and 11 sacks later, we all know how that turned out. As successful as that move was, don’t bet on Thompson changing course again today.
Since this is being touted as one of the deepest drafts in years, where many second round picks would’ve easily been mid- to late-first rounders in 2009, Thompson would be more likely to trade down and collect two additional second round picks or one second and one third round pick. This move always draws a few groans from Packer fans, because half the fun of the draft is anticipating the first round cream-of-the-crop selection.
This draft could also be considered one of Thompson’s most interesting endeavors. Green Bay is coming off a year where the team made the playoffs for the first time in almost 20 years without Brett Favre under center, their offense featured multiple breakout performances from budding playmakers, and Dom Capers’ 3-4 defense developed faster than anyone expected. The future is now for the young Packers, and some quality reinforcements from the draft could be the final piece of the puzzle for long-term success.
If you take the first half of the season as Weakness Gospel, the Packers need at least a minor tweak along the offensive line. Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher are back, but they can’t be expected to play every game when their knees aren’t getting any younger. Guard Mike Iupati, and tackles Anthony Davis or Charles Brown would be possibilities in the first round.
Looking at the second half of 2009, the secondary became more porous than Swiss cheese when Al Harris ended his season early. Having Jarrett Bush on the field at any point is a recipe for disaster, and Atari Bigby still hasn’t taken that step to the next level. Cornerback Kyle Wilson has been said to possess Charles Woodson’s skill set, and Kareem Jackson or Devin McCourty would also fill an immediate need. (Sidenote: On behalf of Packer Nation, please don’t take Taylor Mays. He’s fast, but he can’t cover anyone.)
Name another guy who you saw record a sack for the Packers last year other than Clay Matthews or Charles Woodson. Waiting…waiting…I can’t think of anyone either. An additional pass rush threat would also give the current players in the secondary a boost by forcing the quarterback into a decision in under seven seconds. Linebackers Jerry Hughes or Sergio Kindle would be good fits.
If I had to narrow the picks down, I would bet on the Packers landing Wilson or Hughes at their spot. Both can contribute right away and immediately boost Green Bay’s most apparent weakness over their second half hot streak last year.
So Green Bay can go multiple ways with the 23rd pick tonight, but I would bet that Thompson goes more Clay Matthews (immediate impact) than Aaron Rodgers (developmental pick). Thompson loves finding small school offensive linemen later in the draft, and because the pool of tackles is deep he most likely will wait until the second or third round to grab a project.
By 6:30 tonight, the countdown clock to mock draft prophecies runs to zero, and the Christmas (or more so Hanukkah, since it’s three days long) of the NFL season begins. All you can hope for if you’re coming off a playoff caliber season is for your GM to add the few remaining pieces of the puzzle required for an extended postseason stay. In Thompson We Trust.