Arsenal are the favorites to win the UEFA Champions League, but FC Barcelona are not far behind them. Barcelona have the third best odds, behind only the Gunners and Bayern Munich, to win the UCL, according to most sports books. Newcastle United, meanwhile, are a big time longshot that just isn’t on anyone’s radar right now.
Scroll through most betting sites, and you’ll see Newcastle way down on the list when it comes to Champions League outright odds. They typically given the 10th best odds (of the 16 teams remaining), usually priced in the neighborhood of around +3500 to win it all. They are tremendous long shots, to put it mildly.
Yet here they are, level with the big boys from Barcelona, after the first leg of the last-16 tie. And it was a score draw that should have been a win too. Newcastle was up 1-0 until Lamine Yamal equalized, from the penalty spot, on the very last kick of the game in the 96′.
Asked by a reporter if he felt his team deserved more than a draw, Newcastle manager Eddie Howe responded: “Yes, we do.” Newcastle forward Harvey Barnes lamented the emotions of the team after the defeat.
“It’s tough,” he said. “You score and it’s an amazing feeling — you can feel the fans. We’d played really well. To concede late on is really hard to take, but the score is level and we have a second leg to come.”
Before the second and final leg of the tie with Barcelona comes a crunch clash in the Premier League this weekend, a visit to Chelsea FC.
Chelsea FC vs Newcastle United FYIs
Kickoff: Sat. March 14, 5:30pm, Stamford Bridge, London, UK
Premier League Position: Newcastle 12th, 39 points Chelsea 5th, 48 points
Premier League Form: Newcastle LWLLW Chelsea WDDLW
Google Result Probability: Newcastle win 24% Draw 23% Chelsea win 53%
After the weekend, comes the trip to Catalonia, where Howe’s men will try and win the tie at the Camp Nou on Wednesday night. The road leg, at least on paper, should be a tougher proposition than the home leg at St. James Park was. However, Newcastle has been exceeding expectations at every stage of their 2025-26 continental campaign.
They could very well do so again here.
Paul M. Banks is the Founding Editor of The Sports Bank. He’s also the author of “Transatlantic Passage: How the English Premier League Redefined Soccer in America,” and “No, I Can’t Get You Free Tickets: Lessons Learned From a Life in the Sports Media Industry.”
He currently contributes to USA Today’s NFL Wires Network, RG.org and Ratings.org. His past bylines include the New York Daily News, Sports Illustrated and the Chicago Tribune. His work has been featured in numerous outlets, including the Wall Street Journal, Forbes and the Washington Post.