On the men’s side of the game, Auburn and Duke have been straddling the top of the rankings pretty much the entire season. Tennessee, Houston, Florida. They’ve all had their time in the spotlight, but it’s been these two giants at the top of the heap for some time.
On the women’s end, South Carolina has shown that they are ready to repeat after their surprise win over Caitlin Clark led Iowa last year. They’ll certainly be met with some resistance. Projected 2025 number one draft pick Paige Bueckers and her fellow UConn Huskies go in strong. Texas is the current number-one seed. And don’t sleep on Notre Dame.
In other words, you can expect March to be full of Madness. Who is the most likely to come out ahead? Let’s get into it.
Betting Odds For March Madness
The bookies have Auburn and Duke each at (+350) for the finals. If you aren’t super into stats you could almost stop there. The top two teams claim the vast majority of NCAA championships and the odds are tailored to reflect this.
Going a little further down the line, Houston is at (+800), and Florida is at (+850).
Alabama, meanwhile, pays 12-1, and Tennessee pays 14-1.
We could go on. And on. And on. But to take things any further would be to accept an almost historic level of improbability. Every single one of the teams that enter the tournament is really good. That said, there is a lot of daylight between the top-seeded teams and the ones who squeak into the postseason on a hope and a prayer.
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What about UConn and Purdue?
Last year, UConn and Purdue put on quite a show in their clash for the top spot. Purdue entered the tournament with a chip on its shoulder, looking for its first championship win. UConn, meanwhile, was there to build on their already impressive legacy. The Huskies came out ahead in a game that was entertaining, but never very close.
Unfortunately, both teams have come into the 2024/25 season looking worse for wear. That’s college basketball for you. Team volatility is a much bigger risk factor than it is in the NBA. Here on the collegiate side, players transfer. Players graduate. Players get drafted. So it went.
Neither team is recognizable next to their former glory of the previous season. While both will appear in the playoffs, neither has been forecasted to make it out of the Sweet Sixteen.
The roster turnover hit UConn particularly hard as they lost several key contributors who were instrumental in their championship run. Their offensive efficiency has dropped significantly, and their once-dominant defense shows occasional lapses that weren’t present last season.
Purdue similarly struggled with the departure of their All-American center who had anchored both their offense and defense. Without this dominant inside presence, they’ve had to reinvent their playing style, leading to inconsistent performances throughout the regular season.
Despite their challenges, both programs maintain strong coaching staffs and systems that have helped them salvage respectable seasons from what could have been rebuilding years. Their matchup earlier this season lacked the electricity of last year’s championship game but demonstrated that both programs still command respect in college basketball.
Is It Worth Betting On Dark Horse Teams?
That depends. True dark horse teams–squads that come in at the final few seeds–basically never win. Ever. In the last forty-something years of NCAA men’s basketball, the lowest-seeded team was Villanova, who came in seeded 8th in 1985. The lowest team to make it to the final four was LSU, who entered the tournament as the 11th seed in 1986.
Upsets happen, but not big, Rocky Balboa-style upsets. That said, there is a first time for everything, right? And the odds you get with those Cinderella stories do make it tempting–particularly if you like the team.
In gambling, it’s usually best to bet the odds, rather than with your heart, but then again, March is bracket season. You can afford to get a little indulgent here or there with low-chance, high-win wagers. Just make sure that the bulk of your bets are based on probability.
Statistics consistently show that teams seeded 1-4 win approximately 80% of championships, with top seeds claiming around 60%.
The tournament’s single-elimination format does create windows for memorable upsets in individual games, which is where strategic betting on underdogs in early rounds might yield better returns than championship picks. Many experienced bettors focus on these first-weekend matchups where the point spreads often overvalue top seeds.
Consider the entertainment value of your wager as well. Following an underdog’s journey through the bracket creates an emotional investment that can enhance your tournament experience, even if the statistical likelihood of a championship remains slim.