By: Melissa S. Wollering
Out on bail fresh outta jail, California dreamin’
Soon as I stepped on the track, I’m hearin hoochies screamin’
Fiendin for money and speed, the life of a NASCAR driver where cowards die and its all wall
Only in Cali where we throttle not break to live and die
In L.A. we wearin’ Old Spice not Sean Jean (that’s right)
California is probably the last place in the United States one would think NASCAR could attract a stock car racing crowd, but you’re wrong. California has surfers, Hollywood lifers, green Prius owners galore, West Coast rap and NASCAR. Not necessarily in that order of importance.
The Auto Club 500 at Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California is actually 300 miles, 500 laps. It’s long. It’s tough. The sun makes the track hot and slick. It’s an intermediate oval and there are two races at this track per season—one in the spring, one in the fall.
Each week, I break down the top contenders and analyze their strength for the race at hand as well as their chances for The Chase! On your mark, get set, green flag racing it is!
Matt Kenseth. Changed crew chiefs one race into the season, but it was probably a long time coming. Todd Parrott will replace Drew Blickensderfer. Kenseth failed to make the Chase for the Sprint Cup championship for the first time since its 2004 inception. His 8th place finish last week at Daytona was only the result of moving up the pack towards the end; he raced in 25th much of the 500.
However, the Cambridge, Wisconsin native does race well in Cali and Roush Fenway Racing has taken the spring Cali races the last five seasons. Kenseth’s average running position on this track is 9.0. That’s GREAT considering only three drivers can boast a top ten ARP. A victory for Kenseth could propel him into an early points lead, and that’s exactly what Kenseth wants to set the pace of the season.
Jamie McMurray. Momentum is a huge factor in racing. Back-to-back wins aren’t foreign in NASCAR and coming off the Daytona 500 Jamie could be a contender in Cali. He’s another Roush Fenway driver. At Auto Club, he has three top fives, five top ten’s and has led 43 laps.
Clint Bowyer. He finished fourth at Daytona, led 37 laps that day had the lead when caution and a three-car pileup forced a restart on lap 198 out of 200. He came up short when it was all over but has some success at Auto Club Speedway. He has one top five and four top tens. He’s crashed there twice off turn four, so I might cringe when I see him in that turn. But if he can avoid BOOM, SMASH, I think he’ll be good!
Jeff Gordon. He has won in Cali three times and finished second twice in Cali in 2009. He’s also one of the Three Musketeers. He boasts an average running position of 9.3. Kenseth and Johnson are the only other two drivers that enjoy a top ten average in Cali.
Kurt Busch. You love to HATE both brothers, however, as a Lap 1 leader, Kurt Busch took second-place in 2002. That’s the highest place finish for any Lap 1 leader, as none have gone on to win after holding the lead on that first lap.
Kasey Kahne. If you think the type of car doesn’t matter track to track, you’re wrong. Fords have won the last five Auto Club 500 races. My guess? I’m no expert but cooler temperatures and altitude can sometimes give certain cars an edge. Kasey won here back in 2005, but he wasn’t in a Ford back then. He has a Roush-Yates engine package looks like it will give the Hendrick Motorsports package a run for its money.
Jimmie Johnson. California native, but Turn 4 is where he feels most at home. Over the past ten races at California, Johnson has made 349 passes in the corners, 70-percent in Turns 1 and 4. And if you want to vomit in your mouth some more, his average running position on the track during that time is 5.5. He has 4 wins, 9 top fives and 10 top tens. Barf again.
Crew Chief Chad Knaus won’t let Jimmie have another 35th place finish and he’ll be out for blood so watch carefully. Let’s make sure Johnson doesn’t try anything sneaky to weasel his way to the front.
Predicted Winner: Greg Biffle or Carl Edwards. Both are Roush Fenway drivers and both have an extremely great shot at winning Cali. Biff was one lap away from winning the Daytona 500 and he dominated there a few years ago, only to have engine failure ruin what was to be an incredible run. He has also run well at Michigan, the sister track to California. He’s on a 45 race drought, so victory is long overdue for Biffle.
But I also like Carl Edwards. In ten starts, Edwards has had seven top five finishes and he won a Nationwide Series here already.
No Way He’ll Win: Dale Earnhardt, Jr. He’s hasn’t finished higher than 25th or something awful like that in Cali and he has an ugly beard he should shave. Maybe then he’ll win.
Join me each week as I break down the top contenders and analyze their strength for the race at hand as well as their chances for The Chase!