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2016 Notre Dame football: an early outlook, analysis

January 6, 2016 By paulmbanks

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Critical Injuries were the main story line of the 2015 Notre Dame football season, and this theme persisted the entire way. It began with DT1 Jarron Jones going down for the season as summer training camp opened, and it ended with the team’s best overall player, LB Jaylon Smith suffering a torn MCL and ACL in the first quarter of the Fiesta Bowl.

He’ll undergo reconstructive knee surgery tomorrow, and from there we’ll see how this devastating development impacts his decision to return for another season.

Notre Dame OLB Jaylon Smith will undergo reconstructive left knee surgery Thursday, per sources. Has been top 5-10 draft projection.

— Chris Mortensen (@mortreport) January 5, 2016

Of course, this kind of serious injury, and the subsequent rehabilitation period, rules him out of the Draft’s scouting combine, and probably a pro day as well. So none of us can say what Smith and his family will decide to do right now, but if you have to guess, don’t. You could argue both sides of this debate until you’re blue and gold in the face and still not figure out what Smith’s next move should be. He still has a couple weeks until the deadline to decide.

It’s been reported that Jaylon Smith has a $5 million insurance policy in effect for this kind of situation. However, his slide down the draft board could cost him $10-$20 million potentially.

2015 Gist of it, the good-

Notre Dame football won ten games, and had two very impressive losses (two points to undefeated Clemson, who will play for the national title on Monday, and two points to Pac-12 Champion Stanford, who DEMOLISHED an Iowa team that won 12 games). ND beat two good, but not great teams in Navy and Temple, and their resume lacked an overall signature win.

With every crisis, you have opportunity, and with the Notre Dame football injury crisis this season, lots of young players had plenty of opportunities for playing time. A team that had a QB3 and RB4 (according to the spring Notre Dame football depth chart) taking all the reps down the stretch still won 10 games- that’s something!

jaylon-smith notre dame football

2015 Gist of it, the bad-

ND really looked over-matched by defending national champion Ohio State. It wasn’t nearly as bad as the loss to Alabama in the 2012 national title game, but it conveyed that the fact this is still not your older brother’s Notre Dame football team. The wins over lowly Virginia and a Boston College team with the nation’s worst offense left a lot to be desired too.

The gist of it is still this- ND has not won a major bowl game/a New Year’s Day bowl game since the 1993 Cotton Bowl. To give you an idea of what drought means, remember this- Illinois last won a New Year’s Day bowl in 1990 (Citrus).

brian-kelly

Brian Kelly on the Notre Dame football big picture right now:

“I like where we are. We’re going to keep banging at the door. Keep playing Ohio State, keep playing Florida State, keep playing Alabama, keep playing these teams in these kinds of venues, in these kinds of games.

“We don’t want to be playing directional teams with no profile to them.”

“Big names, great traditions, New Year’s six games. Keep playing them, get in them. Keep building your program, keep recruiting, keep doing it the way you’re doing it, and we’re going to win these games.”

Key Losses-

OL Nick Martin, CB KeiVarae Russell, OL Ronnie Stanley, RB C.J. Prosise, WR Will Fuller, LB Joe Schmidt, LB Jaylon Smith, DL Sheldon Day, WR Chris Brown, S Matthias Farley, S Elijah Shumate

Jaylon Smith??

Key Returnees-

QB Malik Zaire, QB DeShone Kizer, RB Josh Adams, RB Taurean Folston, WR Torii Hunter Jr, TE Alize Jones, CB Cole Luke, LB Greer Martini, LB Nyles Morgan, OL Mike McGlinchey, WR Corey Robinson, S Max Redfield, DB Drue Tranquill, DL Jerry Tillery, DL Jarron Jones

Jaylon Smith??

Malik Zaire injury

2016 top story line-

The QB position battle of course. Zaire had very little experience when he went down for the year against Virginia, so now Kizer has a huge edge on him in this regard.

Bottom Line-

Looks like a 9-3 to 7-5 kind of season. This was the year to make a playoff push, as all the talent and experience, at least on paper, synthesized in 2015. Of course, the ridiculous rash of injuries squashed their CFB Playoff hopes. Notre Dame football went 10-3, and they were just as close to being 12-0 during the regular season as they were to being 8-4.

malik-zaire

So much hinges on Jaylon Smith returning to 100% health and returning to school. Will he be the same kind of player he once was? Who know. He was dominant in 2015, as he covered up so many holes and gaps in the D this past season, and if he’s gone, things could get real dicey on that side of the ball.

As Urban Meyer said of Smith “He’s a monster. He’s a dude. He’s a guy that is going to be playing in the NFL for a long time.”

The Fighting Irish will be able to recover just fine from the talent lost on offense. They have plenty of key players returning on Mike Sanford’s unit.

jaylon-smith-nottre-dame-football-2016-nfl-mock-draft

As for Brian VanGorder’s squad, the key returning names are less impressive. The nation’s 62nd ranked run defense was gashed in Glendale by Ezekiel Elliott, and it’s very difficult be optimistic about the unit, at least on paper, next fall. Although there is plenty of reason to be very optimistic about the potential emergence of Morgan and Tranquill in 2016. Smith named those two when he was asked who were some young players to watch next season at Fiesta Bowl Media Day.

As we transitioned from the 2014 Music City Bowl win over LSU to the next season, you could see that Notre Dame football was on the upswing. This offseason, the arrow points in the opposite direction. On the plus side, lots of young underclassmen already have experience due to all the injuries.

notre-dame-football-banners

Kelly remains upbeat about the future-

“We’ve made significant progress since where we were in 2012. We’ll get there. Hopefully we won’t have as many injuries. We’ll get back here again. We’ll win ’em.

I had a similar process in my career earlier when I was in Division II. Took us about six years to win a playoff game. Then we won three national championships.”

National Champs.net have released their 2016 early bird rankings and they have Notre Dame #12. Sounds about right.

Paul M. Banks owns, operates and sometimes writes The Sports Bank.net, which is partnered with FOX Sports Engage Network. The website is also featured on News Now.

Banks, a former writer for the Washington Times, currently contributes to the Chicago Tribune RedEye. He also appears regularly on numerous television and radio talk shows all across the country. Catch him Tuesdays on KOZN 1620 The Zone.

Follow him on Twitter and Instagram

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