We are just hours away from 2026 Big Ten Media Days commencing, and Illini football coach Bret Bielema will be the very first head coach on dais, of the event’s first day. Talking season is all about optimism. Everybody, right now, has a sunny summertime outlook on the upcoming season.
Everyone is “excited to be here” and “excited to get started.” For every team, it’s “the best group” that they have ever had. The following quote from Coach Prime is the purest example of this concept.
“I feel like I have the best coaching staff I’ve ever had, coaching college football, coaching high school football, coaching youth football,” Sanders said in an exclusive with Ratings.org. “I have a tremendous coaching staff that I’m excited about.
“Not only that, we have a locker room full of young men, 103 of them at this point, that I feel like not only that they’re good, they’re the type of men that we needed and wanted, and we identified them, located them and brought them in and were able to sign them.”
That’s the vibe right there!
However, most preseason prognosticators are not all that bullish on Illinois. In most preseason power rankings, the Illini come in around 9th. You typically see them in that #8 to #11 range. So they’re projected to finish on the first page of the league standings…just barely. So does that equate to a 6-6 season? A 7-5?
After all Vegas seems in agreement that the over/under on Illini football wins in ’26 is 7.5, so an 8-4 season could honestly be there for the taking.
This is a great find, from the Locked on Illini podcast. Sunny Verna referenced a tweet from Carson Goudie, Illini reporter for WICS, the ABC affiliate in Champaign
PROJECTED WINNING PERCENTAGE FOR EACH #Illini FOOTBALL GAME, PER ESPN ANALYTICS:
UAB: 95.2%
Duke: 66.4%
SIU: 94.2%
@ Ohio St: 4.6%
Purdue: 75.5%
@ Michigan St.: 62%
Oregon: 15%
@ Maryland: 55.2%
Nebraska: 49.2%
@ UCLA: 56.7%
Iowa: 43.1%
@ Northwestern: 59.1%Expectation is a… pic.twitter.com/2botvT7lry
— Carson Gourdie (@GourdieReport) July 21, 2026
As Goudie referenced, the ESPN Analytics see three very strong probability wins, two very high probability losses, give games that are more or less toss-ups, and one decent probabilty win. If you just go straight through, there are eight games where Illinois is more likely to win than lose, and four that they more likely to lose than win.
Going 8-4 in a rebuilding/reloading year would be phenomenal. There are not many known entities with this Illinois team. Matthew Bailey is certainly one. Xavier Scott could be as well, but he is coming off a major injury. We can put Kaden Feagin in that category, potentially, but he is making a position switch.
Meanwhile Illinois is replacing quarterback Luke Altmyer, one of the greatest players in program history, as well as most of their defense and almost the entire offensive line.
Paul M. Banks is the Founding Editor of The Sports Bank. He’s also the author of “Transatlantic Passage: How the English Premier League Redefined Soccer in America,” and “No, I Can’t Get You Free Tickets: Lessons Learned From a Life in the Sports Media Industry.”
He currently contributes to USA Today’s NFL Wires Network, Ratings and RG. His past bylines include the New York Daily News, Sports Illustrated and the Chicago Tribune. His work has been featured in numerous outlets, including the Wall Street Journal, Forbes and the Washington Post.