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Notre Dame football playoff chances: Unknowns Knowns

November 20, 2015 By Bill Burke

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Notre Dame Football Image

Notre Dame football has certainly taken a big step forward in the Brian Kelly era.

The 2012 Fighting Irish played for the national title while the current Notre Dame football team sits at 9-1, and in the discussion for that final coveted playoff spot. Although statistical projection site extraordinaire FiveThirtyEight.com gives ND just a 26% chance of finishing in the final top four. 

Amazingly, they’re excelling despite an abundance of injuries, which stands as a testament to their depth and ability.

This Notre Dame football article is joint effort by Grant Herrejon and Paul M. Banks. 

notre-dame-fighting-irish-logo

Fourth-string running back Josh Adams scampered for 288 rushing yards in two games, and the defense as a whole has stepped up ever since losing Jarron Jones and Shaun Crawford. Oh did we mention, important to note how Kelly’s latest edition of Notre Dame football has

 Kirk Herbstreit said it best when we spoke to him at The Drake Hotel in Chicago:

“It’s been impressive to watch them. I don’t know how many teams can stay as consistent as they have with injury… after injury… after injury, and still win a ton of games and look good.”

Malik Zaire injury
Notre Dame QB Malik Zaire after tearing his ACL versus Virginia. DeShone Kizer has filled in for him admirably.

Herbstreit was in town to reveal the latest playoff rankings during the Champions Classic at the United Center.

Notre Dame football fans probably feel a mixed bag of emotions in regards to their team’s playoffs chances. Two teams above them, Clemson and Alabama, seem locked into a playoff spot. Fields will be stormed by incredulous fans if either of them drop one of their last two games. That’s how big of an upset it will be.

The last team ahead of the Irish, Ohio State, has dates with #9 Michigan State and #12 Michigan to close out their year. If the Irish win out, and the Buckeyes lose one of those two, you could see ND leapfrog OSU.  #11 Stanford fell only four places from #7 after their loss last week.

That’s very good news for ND.

“First of all, there’s more chaos to come,” said ESPN College Football Analyst David Pollack, who was also in town for the playoff ranking meetings.

“If you’re playing great at the end of the season, and you stomp a mud hole in Stanford, and you’re playing really well, it’s all you can control.”

rumsfeldian-illini-basketball

In other words, Notre Dame can only control the known knowns. The unknowns knowns, and known unknowns that factor into the playoff selection process are something they’ll have no consequence on. (Sorry to go all Rumsfeldian on you)

Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are breathing down Notre Dame’s neck, and they clash on 11/28 in the “Bedlam” game. It’s the Big 12’s dream that this contest act as a de facto Big 12 Title game, propelling the winner into the final four.

The winner of that in-state battle has a chance, just a chance, but the loser is eliminated. Notre Dame football fans may want to root for Oklahoma, as they share a common opponent in Texas. Notre Dame waxed the Longhorns in the early goings of this season, 38-3. Oklahoma, however, lost to Texas, 24-17. Every game counts. The Texas result, if the committee stresses such things, certainly creates an advantage for the Irish.

heisman-trophy-notre-dame-football

Then there’s Iowa. They’re 10-0 for the first time in school history. The last time they were ranked in both polls, it was 2010. For perspective, Cam Newton was in his Heisman-winning season, and President Obama was in the middle of his first term. This type of nostalgia and parity can sway voters.

Remember a lot of the intangibles that influence bowl selections also influence the playoff committee.

Notre Dame, a fairly big market team rich in NCAAF history, carries similar appeal. They’re such a big brand that the committee will not want to leave them out.

Of all of the teams currently on the outside looking in, Iowa may be the biggest threat to Notre Dame’s playoff hopes. ND fans need to be rooting hard for the Big Ten East Division winner when they take on Iowa in the Big Ten Title game.

Hawkeyes celebrating
Iowa’s looking to win out. Unranked Purdue and Nebraska are the only teams standing in their way of a 12-0 regular season.

It’s college football. Chaos is inevitable tomorrow, the following week, and again on Championship Saturday the following week.

“Their resume, obviously, speaks volumes about where they’re at,” said Pollack.

“Where they’ll go moving forward..there’s a lot of teams in the same boat, I mean how many teams really control their own destiny? All they can do is keep winning.”

Just because the top four rankings didn’t move this week, doesn’t mean they’re set in stone. 2015 Notre Dame football is right there in the thick of it with all the other one loss teams. Their resume hangs its hat on a loss to #1 Clemson. That idea might be better than it sounds. And given the format, it might be more impressive than Notre Dame football’s two quality wins, both from the AAC in Navy and Temple.

Paul M. Banks owns, operates and sometimes writes The Sports Bank.net, which is partnered with FOX Sports Engage Network. The website is also featured on News Now.

Banks, a former writer for the Washington Times, currently contributes to the Chicago Tribune RedEye. He also appears regularly on numerous television and radio talk shows all across the country. Catch him Tuesdays on KOZN 1620 The Zone.

Follow him on Twitter and Instagram

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