With the college basketball season tipping off next Friday, this is your Northwestern basketball “starting five,” the five biggest things you need to know/the five most pressing questions.
As it’s the preseason, there are no “knowns.” There are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say there are things that we now know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we do not know we don’t know. Sorry for getting Donald Rumsfeldian (hey, he’s from the North Shore! New Trier graduate) on you, but here’s your Northwestern basketball starting five.
1. How does Northwestern basketball replace Drew Crawford?
One of the most decorated players in Northwestern basketball history, that is the million dollar question. (Although a million dollars won’t really buy you much real estate in the north shore) NU was a fantastic defensive team last season, but watching them run their half-court offense was, at times…..about as exciting and interesting as paying utility bills. The most significant issue in replacing Crawford is the scoring. Everyone following Northwestern basketball wants to know where they’ll find the points.
They hung a hundo on McKendree in the exhibition, FWIW. Also, one of the main players on McKendree is named Michael Jackson, FWIW.
Crawford will be replaced by committee; there are lots of athletic freshmen on this roster now.
The Northwestern basketball schedule certainly sets itself up for an adjustment period. November and December are total cake. Their non-conference slate is easier than convincing a sorority girl to get inebriated, with no big names on the schedule until 2015 when Wisconsin comes to Welsh-Ryan Arena on January 4th.
It’s not all their fault though. The Cancun Challenge just happens to provide a very weak field, and NU’s draw in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge just happens to be Georgia Tech, the runt of the ACC litter.
Things get real in a hurry though as the #3 ranked Badgers are the second conference game (at Rutgers is the first). Then it goes: at Michigan State, Illinois, at Michigan, Ohio State, at Maryland, Purdue, at Nebraska, at Wisconsin, Michigan State. Don’t be shocked if Northwestern basketball goes undefeated in the non-conf, but then starts league play 2-9.
2. How much impact will Vic Law make?
“I think this will be a team where we have a lot of different leading scorers on different nights,” said Coach Chris Collins after the exhibition.
“We had to go through Drew with a lot of our stuff last year, and rightfully so.”
This year’s leading scorers will most likely be:
-JerShon Cobb (who is listed in NBA Draft.net’s 2015 NBA mock draft for what it’s worth)
-Alex Olah (who should show up in some 2017 NBA mock drafts, given his height, and the way he handled Noah Vonleh last season, a lottery pick this past June…and Goran Suton of all people was drafted so I wouldn’t be surprised if Olah gets a shot at the next level) Olah was the leading scorer and rebounder in the exhibition, going 8-10 from the floor
-Tre Demps (who will assume a leadership role)
-Vic Law (who is one of the most impact freshmen to hit this program in a long time)
Law will start immediately and make a huge impact, as he’s big and versatile. He can score inside and out.
3. What’s a reasonable expectation of progress in year two of the New NU era?
You know how in all those war movies they swiftly build those makeshift bridges in order to transport the troops across the river? Then they leave those bridges behind? Well, they’re not pretty or special, but the bridges do get the job done. That’s kind of what this Northwestern basketball season be like. Collins inherited a roster from Bill Carmody built to run the Princeton offense and the 1-3-1 zone. This is only year two of personnel turnover to Collins’ systems.
These things take time. Year one had some great moments (the win at the Kohl Center was impressive, the Illini were ranked when Northwestern beat them) but nothing was accomplished last year that didn’t also regularly occur during the best years of the Carmody era. Expect this year to be more of the same. There will be some exciting moments for Northwestern basketball, but don’t expect them to finish anywhere near the top half of the league.
Things are moving in the right direction though; recruiting classes are ranked high. The NCAA Tournament may or may not be in the cards in the future. However, that’s not at all on the table this year.
4. A freshman starting point guard to run the offense for the next four years?
“To be a freshman point guard at this level is not easy, and I demand a lot of my point guards,” said Collins of Bryant McIntosh, who had 15 points and 11 rebounds, to go with just 2 turnovers on 6-6 shooting in the exhibition.
“I think the thing that really stands out to me is 33 assists on 41 baskets.”
Juice Thompson was handed the ball immediately as a rookie. When he graduated, Dave Sobolewski took over the reigns of the offense right away as a freshmen. Now it’s McIntosh’s turn. Sobo regressed considerably during his career. He’s still here, but won’t be relevant in his senior season.
5. Will people ever shut up with the “how come the top Chicago kids don’t stay home to play their college basketball” narrative?
No.
Sorry.
This played out storyline will continue thriving as long as the teams in the state keep letting top tier talent go play across the country.
At this point, the blame isn’t on any of the teams in the state of Illinois, it’s on the media. The Chicago sports media is pretty awful at their jobs to begin with, and those that cover college sports are especially bad, so that’s why we keep hearing the same headline over and over again ever college hoops and college basketball recruiting season.
First off, we all (myself included) care way too much about recruiting than we should. Secondly, all of these shopworn narratives hinge on high school kids. We were all whimsical and immature in prep school, why should we expect this generation to be more sensible? In most cases, we’re also talking about prep school kids who have spent a good portion of their lives being told by desperate hangers-on that they’re the next basketball Messiah. So we’re supposed to be make predictions and interpret their actions with logic and reasoning? Please. Just drop the idea of trying to extrapolate greater meaning from their actions and move on.
Everything recruiting related can be summated in the chicken-or-the-egg problem. College basketball in Illinois needs to be consistently solid in order to get better players. They’ll become better when they land those better prospects. So chicken-or-the egg dilemma. Although Law was a four-star recruit, from the Chicago suburbs (St. Rita high school) so this narrative should already be starting to lose some of its momentum.
Paul M. Banks owns, operates and very often writes The Sports Bank.net ,which is partners with Fox Sports. Read his features stories in the Chicago Tribune RedEye edition. Listen to him on 1620 The Zone. Follow him on Twitter (@paulmbanks). His work has been featured in hundreds of media outlets including The Washington Post and ESPN 2