The Detroit Red Wings held off any speculation as to their potential
demise by via a 4-game sweep of the Phoenix Coyotes. The Red Wings did
struggle down the regular season stretch and while they are the NHL’s
oldest team, they appeared to have “flipped the switch” during their 1st
Round Stanley Cup playoffs series against the Coyotes, winning by an
average margin of 2 goals/game.
Meanwhile, the San Jose Sharks were engaged in a dogfight against the
Los Angeles Kings as the majority of the games went into overtime. In
fact, the goals scored for and against each team in the playoff series
was identical, so you can’t really get much more competitive than that.
By Ed Cmar
These combatants faced each other during last season’s 2nd round Western
Conference semi-finals, with the Sharks besting the Red Wings 4 games to
1. On the surface, this would appear to be quite an interesting series,
one in which the Red Wings would try to obtain payback from the Sharks.
I offer my predictions by assessing each team’s offense, defense,
special teams, goaltending and finally each squad’s “X-Factor” – the
intangibles that could decide the outcome of this series. I will then
conclude with my prediction as to how I see this series playing out –
who wins the series and in how many games they will do it.
Here’s the Rundown:
Offense:
The Sharks possess one of the NHL’s most offensively-gifted teams,
having finished 6th in the league’s regular season scoring statistics,
registering 2.92 goals/game. They possess a balanced scoring arsenal
with as many as five players registering over 60 points during the
regular season. Patrick Marleau led the Sharks with 73 points and 37
goals, while Joe Thornton finished right behind Marleau with 70 points,
leading the Sharks with 49 assists. The Sharks also possess key
secondary scoring prowess with as many as seven players scoring over 20
goals.
The Red Wings were the NHL’s 2nd best scoring team during the regular
season, notching 3.08 goals/game. The Red Wings were lead by Henrik
Zetterberg who scored 80 points in 80 regular season games. Johan
Franzen paced the goal-scoring brigade with 28 goals, although one
5-goal night certainly buoyed his goal-scoring statistics. Like the
Sharks, Detroit possesses a balanced scoring attack, with seven players
scoring over 40 points during the regular season. They also possess
great secondary scoring with 13 players scoring at least 10 goals during
the season.
Neither team’s scoring attack took a vacation during their respective
1st round series as Detroit and San Jose were 1st and 3rd in playoff
scoring, respectively.
So, for both the playoffs and in assessing the regular season, the
advantage goes to…
Advantage: Push
Defense:
Both teams have staked their reputation on their collective defensive
capabilities; however, in assessing the overall defenses, it appears to
be a bit imbalanced, at least by reviewing the regular season
statistics. The Sharks finished 9th the NHL in goals allowed/game,
allowing a respectable 2.50 goals/game. The Sharks, particularly during
the 2nd half of the regular season, demonstrated an ability to control
the pace and tempo of a game with tight-checking and solid
shot-blocking. The Sharks defensive scoring is led by Dan Boyle, who
registered 41 assists to go along with his 50 points during the regular
season. Beyond Boyle, however, defensive line scoring drops off quite a
bit.
The Red Wings struggled defensively this past regular season, finishing
23rd in GAA/game, having given up a stingy 2.28 goals/game.
Offensively, however, their contingent of offensive defensemen is one of
the best in the entire NHL, and has been for quite some time. They are
led of course, by the premier defenseman of his generation, Niklas
Lidstrom, who showed himself as the ageless wonder at 39 by scoring 62
points, 46 of which were assists. Brian Rafalski and Niklas Kronwall
also lend stellar offensive production from their defensive corps, as
both registered 48 and 37 points, respectively.
While the Sharks’ defensive stinginess appeared to wane during their 1st
round series against the Kings, the Kings are one of NHL’s most
offensively-prolific teams. As for the Red Wings, they did a masterful
job of clamping down on the Coyotes during their 1st round series sweep,
although the Coyotes have never recently been mentioned as one of the
premier offensive teams in the NHL.
While both squads appeared to be quite different defensively during the
regular season, in assessing which team possesses the defensive
advantage…
Advantage: Sharks
Special Teams:
To assess each teams overall special teams play, the difference is like
splitting hairs. The Sharks were 3rd in the NHL in Power Play (PP)
efficiency, with a very impressive 23.5 PP conversion rate. No slouches
themselves, the Red Wings finished 5th in the league’s overall PP
success rate, converting on 22.3% of their PP chances. Whereas the
Predators finished 26th, struggling with a 15.2% conversion rate.
However, in the 1st round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, both teams
converted power plays at the identical 22.2% rate. During the 1st round
of the playoffs, there was a stark difference in PP success, with the
Red Wings converting 26.7% of their chances, while the Sharks struggled
on the PP against the Kings, converting at a putrid 8.7% clip.
Regarding the Penalty Kill, both teams finished in the bottom half of
the NHL’s Penalty Killing (PK) statistics. Detroit was 17th in PK%,
killing off 82.3% of their shorthanded situations while the Sharks were
23rd in the same category, killing off 79.5 of their penalty kill
situations. However, regarding shorthanded goals given up, those marks
were nearly identical as Detroit surrendered 67 goals while the Sharks
gave up 68 goals. During the playoffs, the roles reversed themselves as
the Red Wings successfully killed off only 67% of their PK situations
while the Sharks nearly matched their regular season totals at a 79.2%
clip.
So, when assessing the overall advantage in Special Teams…
Advantage: Sharks (slight)
Goaltending:
Analyzing each team’s respective goaltending abilities mirrors the
analysis of their special teams – a sizeable advantage to the Sharks
with a totally different result during their 1st round Stanley Cup
playoff results. The Sharks struggled to settle upon their primary
netminder during the first half of the regular season, alternating
between former Blackhawks Stanley Cup playoff stalwart Antti Niemi and
Antero Niittymaki; however, Niemi’s strong second half play cemented his
status as the primary goalie for the Sharks’ strong second half surge.
The Red Wings are led in net by one of the solid young goaltenders in
the NHL in Jimmy Howard. Howard posted solid if unspectacular regular
season statistics, with a 2.79 GAA and a Save% of .910. However, great
goaltenders are judged by their performances in the Stanley Cup
playoffs, and Howard picked his game up during their 1st round series
against the Coyotes, posting a GAA of 2.50 and a Save% of .920.
However, when assessing each team’s respective goaltenders, the edge is
determined by Stanley Cup playoff and championship experience and thus
goes to…
Advantage: Sharks
X-Factor:
In viewing the intangibles, both last seasons 4-1 playoff victory for
the Sharks against the Red Wings consistent dominance of the Western
Conference and Stanley Cup championship over the course of the last
nearly 20 seasons, this area is a tough call. The pride and experience
of a multiple Stanley Cup champion versus a team who has finally
exorcised the demons of past seasons playoff flops.
While perhaps not the most objective analysis tool, Detroit’s 4-game
series sweep can be viewed as either a message to the rest of the NHL
that “we’re not dead, yet” or it could be a possible hindrance in
allowing the NHL’s oldest, most experienced team too long of a break
between series. I believe this factor, combined with the results of
last season’s series, the edge goes to…
Advantage: Sharks
Prediction:
While the Sharks have not yet been to a Stanley Cup finals, they do
possess all of the earmarks of a Stanley Cup finalist. On the other
hand, Detroit would like to demonstrate that last season’s elimination
was merely an aberration and the long-term result of an injury-riddled
regular season. And it was this playoff series that began the whispers
of the slow downfall of the NHL’s closest thing to a current dynasty.
It will be critical for the Sharks to sweep the first two games at home
in the HP Pavilion and steal at least one playoff game in Detroit’s Joe
Louis Arena. Otherwise, the ghosts of playoffs past may creep up on the
current Sharks.
Given all those variables, here’s the guess:
Sharks in Six Games