By Jeff Ghiringhelli, Paul M. Banks, David Kay, Jake McCormick
It’s all about the NCAA Tournament bubble. That is typically the main storyline in power conference tournaments such as the Big Ten. The teams at the top of the conference (Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State, and Wisconsin) are all locks for the Big Dance. Teams such as Illinois and Minnesota will likely need two wins or more over the weekend to give themselves a chance for an at-large bid. There is a lot on the line for these teams, and it should make for some must-see TV in Indianapolis.
Of course, the top four are playing for seeding in the NCAA Tournament. Ohio State comes in as the favorite, and has a slight chance at grabbing the final number one seed in the Big Dance. However, they need other top teams to lose, and should count on a two seed. Purdue, even without Robbie Hummel, can also grab a two seed barring an early defeat. Michigan State is probably looking at a three seed, but they will make a strong case for a two seed if they win the tournament. Wisconsin, always lurking in the shadows, can bump themselves up to a three seed with a strong tournament showing. Clearly, the Big Ten Tournament is important even for the top seeds. Getting a high seed is key in the Big Dance, and these teams know it.
Illinois had their chance this past weekend to get a quality win over Wisconsin, but they fell by fifteen at home. They get another shot at the Badgers on Friday, so they must win this one. They will likely have to knock off Ohio State in the semi-finals to secure their at-large bid, because their RPI is not very good right now, and it will drop even more once they lose (whenever that is) in this tournament. Therefore, they really need at least two wins.
There is a very similar story with Minnesota. They have less of a chance to get a bid than Illinois, so they must get to get past Penn State, beat Michigan State, and maybe even win one more game to be considered. A tough road to be sure.
Now, it it time to make some picks:
PAUL M. BANKS- Sports Bank President, Big 10 Expert
First Round
Michigan 63, Iowa 49- And you wonder where the negative perceptions about the Big Ten come from
Northwestern 74, Indiana 67- How did NU lose in Bloomington? Seriously, they crushed them into small little pieces in Evanston…oh, that’s right Northwestern doesn’t actually play basketball on the road this season. Sure they schedule road games, but they don’t quite show up.
Penn State 75, Minnesota 73- Do the Penn State Talor Battles begin their Cinderella run here?
Quarterfinals:
Ohio State 79, Michigan 61- And it will be even more lopsided than that.
Wisconsin 54, Illinois 31- Illini have clearly stopped trying since Mid February, what makes me think they’ll display any effort here
Purdue 68, Northwestern 67- Sorry Cats, you proved you can hang with this team by beating them in January (When they had Hummell) but not this time.
Michigan State 81, Penn St. 79- The Lions will be game, but Izzo knows how to hunt big game
Semi-Finals:
Wisconsin 72, Ohio St. 69- The Buckeyes will sort of not take this one all that seriously, as they’ll rest up for the big boy tournament, secure in the fact that they have a #2 seed waiting for them
Michigan State 53, Purdue 49- Without Robbie Hummell and Chris Allen, both offenses will be sloppy and out of sync. Prior to last season, Boilers’ record in Indy was historically bad. Add another L to it.
Championship
Wisconsin 66, Michigan State 65- Wisconsin just usually kicks so much ass in the conference season and conference tournaments. In the Big Dance not so much. Enjoy it here Buckyheads, because next week they’re a second round out.
JEFF GHIRINGHELLI- TSB MSU Expert
First Round
Michigan over Iowa
Northwestern over Indiana
Minnesota over Penn State
I wanted to pick an upset in the first round, but I think all the higher seeds advance in the first round. The bottom three in the league are just plain bad, and will not have enough to pull an upset on day one.
Quarterfinals:
Ohio State over Michigan
Wisconsin over Illinois
Purdue over Northwestern
Michigan State over Minnesota
Again, no surprises. Toughest game to pick is Illinois vs. Wisconsin, but the Badgers appeared to have the Illini’s number in Champaign. Jon Leuer is looking better each game. As for Michigan State, the Chris Allen suspension is alarming. They will get past Minnesota without him, but if he is out for longer the Spartans will have a hard time in the semi-finals against Purdue.
Semi-Finals:
Ohio State over Wisconsin
Michigan State over Purdue
Both of these games will be outstanding. Wisconsin will play the Buckeyes very tough, but Evan Turner is just too much. He will take over this close game in the final minutes and carry his team to the finals. My gut tells me that Allen will be back for this game, which will give the Spartans a lift. Also, if they crash the glass like they did against Purdue at Mackey Arena, it will be hard for Purdue to win. Kalin Lucas will out-duel E’Twaun Moore in the second half.
Championship:
Ohio State over Michigan State
The Buckeyes are playing as well as anybody in the country, and it will show this weekend. This game will also be close, but again it will be all about Turner. He will show that he should be the leading candidate for National Player of the year in leading his team to both the regular season and postseason conference titles.
PAUL SCHMIDT TSB Illinois Expert:
I’m going with all the top four seeds in the semis and Wisconsin over Purdue in the title game
JAKE MCCORMICK TSB Wisconsin Expert
The Big Ten is very similar to the NBA’s Eastern Conference in that there are four top teams with seven teams fighting for the title of the best of the mediocre. Any final four matchup that doesn’t feature Ohio State vs. Wisconsin or Michigan State vs. Purdue will be a monumental surprise, and this is where the tournament will start getting interesting.
Evan Turner has stolen the show in Columbus, and should lead the Buckeyes to a victory over Wisconsin based on the Badgers’ pension for letting one player destroy them while containing everyone else. The absence of Robbie Hummel and a healthy Kalin Lucas will give Michigan State a ticket to the Big Ten title game.
I think Ohio State will rectify last year’s title loss to Purdue by beating Michigan State with a similar score, around 65-62. The Buckeyes are simply playing the best basketball in the Big Ten as of this moment, and could punch their ticket to a number one seed in the Big Dance if they can make the Vegas oddsmakers look smart.
DAVID KAY TSB Vice Pres., College Hoops Expert:
First off, could there be a more boring opening day of the Big Ten Tournament than the games scheduled? As a college basketball junkie, I still have zero desire to watch any of those games.
I really think the winner of the likely Ohio State/Wisconsin semifinal will end up taking home the trophy. That Buckeye/Badger battle should be a classic. The Badgers smacked around OSU in Madison when Evan Turner was sidelined and the Buckeyes returned the favor in Columbus when Jon Leuer was out with his wrist injury. With both teams at 100% and playing great ball down the stretch, it should be a hell of a match-up.
I am taking the Badgers due to their size advantage inside and the fact that OSU lacks depth. Wisconsin will then knock off Purdue in the title game after the Boilermakers beat Minnesota in the Semis. Yup, I am picking the Gophers to upset Michigan State as Blake Hoffarber flexes his post-season magic with a game-winning three at the buzzer. Wisconsin then earns a 3-seed in the tourney while Purdue gets a 2, Ohio State earns a 3, and Michigan State a 4. Tournament MVP: Jon Leuer.