ESPN’s Bill Barnwell placed Patrick Mahomes at the apex of his annual trade value column on July 16, pegging the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback at seven first-round draft picks — the highest figure assigned to any player in the league. That number arrives despite a torn ACL suffered in December 2025 and Mahomes entering his age-31 season in September. The figure is not abstract flattery. It is the most concrete available estimate of how much the rest of the NFL would have to surrender to acquire him.
A Lithuanian Betting Market Reflects the Same Premium
Martynas Norvilas, a Lithuanian sports journalist and betting industry expert who tracks how domestic markets price international sports, sees the Barnwell valuation as confirmation of something that has been visible in the numbers for years. Even with the ACL injury on the ledger and a down year behind him, Mahomes commands a premium that does not erode the way it does for almost every other athlete at 31.
Norvilas points to Lazybu Lietuva as a place where that valuation becomes tangible for Lithuanian followers, noting that the platform tracks NFL futures markets and consistently reflects Kansas City near the top of Super Bowl and MVP odds season after season.
“Barnwell’s seven-pick figure is extraordinary on its own, but what strikes me is that it holds even after the worst injury of Mahomes’ career. In the Lithuanian betting market, the Chiefs have sat at or near the top of NFL futures for years. That is not inertia — that is the same signal Barnwell is quantifying.”
For Norvilas, the draft-pick valuation and the futures pricing are two expressions of the same underlying judgment: that Mahomes, even diminished, remains the standard against which every other quarterback is measured.
Barnwell’s Valuation and the Caveats That Come With It
According to Heavy., Barnwell’s column assigns the seven-pick ceiling to exactly two quarterbacks: Mahomes and Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills. No other player in the league reaches that tier.
Barnwell does not pretend the pairing is without nuance. He is explicit that Allen currently holds an edge on the field, writing:
“I’m of the opinion that Allen is the best quarterback in football at the moment, having outplayed Mahomes over the past three seasons, but Mahomes’ postseason halo and remarkably consistent success before 2025 would undoubtedly charm teams, too.”
The reason both land at seven picks rather than Allen pulling ahead comes down to what Mahomes’ track record represents to a hypothetical acquiring franchise. Barnwell acknowledges the complications directly:
“There would be some hesitation about committing too many future picks given his age and the knee injury. But that could still mean a decade of high-level quarterback play from arguably the best player of his generation.”
Mahomes will be 31 in September. The ACL tear in Week 15 of the 2025 season was the most serious injury of his career. Barnwell weighs both factors and still arrives at a figure that no one else in the league matches.
Allen Overtakes Mahomes in the Annual Coach and Scout Survey
Barnwell’s trade-value column is one data point. The other comes from ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler, whose annual quarterback survey draws on the opinions of NFL coaches, executives, and scouts. For the first time, that survey placed Allen above Mahomes. The previous three summers, Mahomes had finished first.
Fowler wrote up the findings plainly:
“After three consecutive seasons of subpar production (for his standards), Mahomes relinquishes his crown for at least one year, despite leading all QBs in first-place votes. The Chiefs have struggled to run effectively in recent years, and the receiver trio of Xavier Worthy, Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown never blossomed into a consistent threat.”
The detail about first-place votes matters. Mahomes still received more individual top rankings from respondents than any other quarterback. The aggregate score moved him down, but the people most convinced he remains the best chose him in greater numbers than they chose anyone else. Three consecutive seasons of production below his own standard, combined with a supporting cast that failed to develop, were enough to shift the overall result without eliminating the core argument for him.
Kansas City’s Roster Questions Heading Into the Season
The personnel picture around Mahomes remains unsettled. Travis Kelce is returning for his 14th NFL season, but the source is direct about his diminished standing relative to his peak years. His presence is no longer the automatic offensive advantage it once was.
Rashee Rice’s situation is more complicated. He is still working back from knee surgery, a recovery that was interrupted by a 30-day jail sentence tied to a probation violation. The disruption adds uncertainty to a comeback that was already being managed carefully.
Hollywood Brown is no longer on the roster. Kenneth Walker III arrived this offseason as the lead running back, coming off a Super Bowl MVP performance, but a running back addition does not resolve the questions at wide receiver and on the offensive line. The line carries significant question marks into the season.
Kansas City remains an active candidate to add a veteran wide receiver through free agency or a trade. Until that move is made — if it is made — the skill-position group around Mahomes stays incomplete, and the offseason remains open rather than settled.