Every NBA season has its fair share of surprises. Teams that were expected to hover near the bottom suddenly find themselves climbing the standings. They’re not supposed to win this often — but somehow, they do. So, what’s the deal? Are they just catching lucky breaks? Or is there something else — something deeper — that keeps them ahead of the curve when others fall short?
If you look closely, the data doesn’t just suggest random luck. In fact, certain patterns seem to pop up again and again when these so-called “overachievers” show up.
The Gap Between Projections and Reality
At the start of every season, fans and analysts alike put out predictions — usually based on team stats, offseason moves, and past performance. But there’s always that team or two that blows right past the numbers.
The gap between what was expected and what actually happens is what some refer to as the “expectations gap.” While most teams end up close to their projected win totals, others wildly outperform them.
Think about the 2022–23 Sacramento Kings. They weren’t exactly on anyone’s radar to finish as high as they did. Or the 2020–21 Knicks — a team no one had pegged for a strong playoff push. And let’s not forget the Miami Heat, who’ve made a habit out of punching above their weight.
Websites like Lines keep track of preseason predictions and help highlight just how far teams rise (or fall) from where they were expected to land.
Growth Happens Behind the Scenes
One big reason these teams defy the odds? Internal development. It’s not always flashy, but it’s effective. A young player hits their stride, or a veteran tweaks their game to fit a better role — and the whole team gets better because of it.
That was the case with the Kings. Fox had already proven he was fast and dangerous, but in 2022–23 he looked like a guy who wanted the ball when it mattered most. Sabonis gave them consistent production in the paint. Together, they built a chemistry that didn’t show up on paper until the season actually started.
Stats like PER or True Shooting % are helpful for measuring performance, but they can’t always predict who’s about to take a leap forward. The teams that put energy into development — and actually give players the space to grow — tend to reap the benefits later.
Staying on the Court Makes a Difference
Injuries change everything. When key players miss time, it’s tough to build momentum. On the flip side, when a roster stays healthy, even an average team can do a lot more than expected.
That’s part of what made the 2020–21 Knicks such a shock. Julius Randle didn’t miss a single game. The lineup barely changed. The consistency allowed them to run sets more smoothly, defend without confusion, and win close games others might’ve lost.
You can’t really forecast injuries — not with any accuracy. Load management helps, sure, but it’s still a wild card. That’s why a healthy roster, even if it’s not full of stars, can be a major x-factor.
When Coaching Really Counts
Sometimes, a coaching shift is all it takes. New strategy, fresh motivation, or simply a better fit can make a roster look completely different.
Erik Spoelstra and the Heat are a perfect case study. Spoelstra doesn’t just coach talent — he finds ways to maximize effort, especially from the bench. His teams play smart, stay competitive, and adapt better than most. That alone has kept Miami outperforming projections, especially in years when more hyped teams struggled.
It’s hard to assign a number to leadership or locker room culture, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t real. When players buy in early, and the coach sets the tone, results usually follow.
What the Stats Don’t Catch
Advanced numbers are everywhere — and yes, they help. Tools like Adjusted Plus-Minus and pace-based efficiency give a detailed look at how teams function. But even the best metrics miss things.
One issue? Most models lean hard on last season’s numbers. So if a team makes small but important adjustments — say, adding solid defenders or cleaning up their bench rotation — it might go unnoticed until wins start piling up.
Also, stats don’t really capture things like chemistry. You can measure minutes shared, but not trust, or communication, or effort. That stuff matters — a lot — and it can’t always be seen in a box score.
If you’re into data, Basketball Reference has plenty of deep-dive stats, but even they won’t give you the full picture. Sometimes, it’s just about how a group plays together, not just what they look like on paper.
What to Look for in the Next Surprise Team
If you’re trying to spot the next squad that might defy the odds, here are a few hints that often signal a jump is coming:
- A roster that’s finally healthy after a tough injury year
- Young talent starting to click in the second half of the previous season
- A coaching hire focused on development, not just experience
- Strong early-season effort and chemistry during preseason games
The teams that come in under the radar often don’t stay there for long — if you’re paying attention.
One Last Thought
Basketball is unpredictable. That’s part of the fun. You can crunch numbers all day long, but there’s always that team that plays with a chip on its shoulder, figures it out early, and keeps proving people wrong.
They don’t always look like contenders in October — but by the time the season wraps, they’re impossible to ignore.
