When this Illini basketball team lost to UConn at Madison Square Garden on Black Friday, it was a game that didn’t receive much hype. After all, it was an early tip-off on the day after Thanksgiving, on many people were more focused on food, shopping, holiday season activities and football than they were on basketball.
And then the game itself lived down to the lack of hype, as UConn cruised to a 74-61 victory, and honestly that final score doesn’t really do justice to how lopsided it really was.
However, everything has changed this time around. The excitement for this Final Four game is off-the-charts, and this time, the experts and bookmakers are projecting Illinois to win.
Final Four FYIs
#3 Illinois Fighting Illini vs #2 UConn Huskies
Sat. Apr. 4, 5:09 CST, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN TBS, TruTV, HBO Max
Spread: Illinois -2.5, Total 139.5 ESPN Matchup Predictor: 59% Illini victory
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How This Illini Basketball Team Beats UConn
The Illini are not huge favorites, but they are definitely favored. They have looked better than UConn in the tournament thus far, and they’re a very different team, right now, from what they were in the eighth game of the season. At that point, they were still integrating a lot of new pieces. Right now they’re showing that they can win in multiple ways.
In the opening round versus Penn, they just blitzed a team with far less talent and depth, by just scoring at will and blowing the doors of them.
In the second round against VCU, it was a slower place and less aesthetically pleasing to watch, but it was still efficient and effective. Once again, this Illini basketball team blew out an opponent that just couldn’t match their fire power in any way shape or form.
In the sweet 16, Illinois continued their season long trend of playing their best ball in hostile road environments. This time they won with defense, and forced Kelvin Sampson’s team into missing shots and making mistakes.
It was the most impressive win of the Brad Underwood era, and they were able to win decisively, even though the 3s weren’t falling. Against Iowa, the three-ball was not working at all, and Illinois still won comfortably, by pounding it inside consistently.
So the Illini can come at you in various ways, and Asst. Coach Tyler Underwood has brilliantly engineered an offense that is extremely difficult to stop.
Plus, they will have the home court advantage, out of all four teams, in terms of crowd partisanship.
How This Illini Basketball Team to UConn
In public, UConn coach Dan Hurley doesn’t really appear to be the most congenial sort. He’s doesn’t seem to be the most modest man either; at least by the image he projects publicly. However the man can flat out coach. He might be the top overall coach in the game right now, as he’s got a 73% win rate at UConn and two national championships.
There is certainly room for disagreement about his style, but you can’t argue with his results.
Duke gets all the “Evil Empire” hype, and when Mike Krzyzewski was active it was easy to see why, but Hurley’s UConn could be the successor. And thus it’s fitting that they just eliminated
They are indeed a juggernaut, and Hurley has most certainly already done a lot of solid scouting on Illinois. You’ve heard multiple opposing coaches lament how difficult this Illini basketball team is to defend and game-plan against.
There is a lot of, as the cliche goes, “pick your poison” in taking on Illinois, but Hurley will no doubt be prepped, and then some.
Led by freshman shooting guard Braylon Mullins, who has really made himself some money this NCAA Tournament, especially with that cold-blooded game-winning three in the last round, UConn will try to force Illinois to be as perimeter based as possible.
The Huskies will try to disrupt passing lanes, and throw off the Illinois ball rotation. They’ll hope to get Illinois settling for threes and missing at least 70% of them.
While Mullins, a 5-star frosh, has draft lottery potential, UConn has two more draft prospects in Tarris Reed Jr. and Alex Karaban. The latter was described by Underwood as one of the best players in the country.
How he matches up with Mirkovic and the Ivisic twins will go a long way towards determining who wins this game.
Prediction:Illini Basketball 81, UConn Huskies 77
Paul M. Banks is the Founding Editor of The Sports Bank. He’s also the author of “Transatlantic Passage: How the English Premier League Redefined Soccer in America,” and “No, I Can’t Get You Free Tickets: Lessons Learned From a Life in the Sports Media Industry.”
He currently contributes to USA Today’s NFL Wires Network, RG, Ratings and SportsBoom. His past bylines include the New York Daily News, Sports Illustrated and the Chicago Tribune. His work has been featured in numerous outlets, including the Wall Street Journal, Forbes and the Washington Post.