It’s 2015. Life is moving quickly, and attention spans are shortening.
“Give me interesting, enthralling content, and give it to me now.”
This is the mindset that much of the populace has adopted. You see people scrolling and scrolling through social media sites, ignoring most posts that require more than a few seconds of their attention. Many people won’t watch a video if it requires them to click on it.
This shortening of attention spans has directly affected the professional sports industry, specifically the NFL. This is one of the reasons the NFL has moved the extra point opportunity back to the 15-yard line at the beginning of this season (though extra points were essentially pointless before this move anyway.)
Kicking the extra point seemed to be just a delay in the action, because the vast, vast majority of them were successful. With the 33-yard extra point, the two-point conversion becomes more enticing, and brings the audience a bonus play that’s not a guaranteed success for either team, while opening the game up for more scoring. Enter the world of more eight-point touchdowns sprinkled in with the sevens.
More scoring typically means more exciting games, more exciting games means more fans, and more fans means more money, which anyone could tell you is the NFL’s number one objective. While more aggressive playcalling might be in the best interest for the NFL, there’s profound evidence indicating it’s in the best interest of the teams as well.
According to these charts, the majority of teams have been converting more often than not on 4th down chances and two-point chances this season. Each chance is relative, of course, since not all of them are going to be 4th and inches in opposing territory. However, if you’re deep enough in opposing territory, and have reasonable faith in your offense, take the shot at going for it on fourth down.
It’d be different if the three points from a field goal were an absolute guarantee, but kickers aren’t perfect. Last year, the average made field goal percentage was 81.6%. Take into account that there are few things more momentum-crushing to a team than a miss on what seemed to be a surefire field goal. Offenses seem to kick it into another gear when they’re coming onto the field after a missed field goal.
Furthermore, it’s simple math when it comes to two-point conversions. If you miss one, but go for it again the next time around, it’s the same result as if you’d merely kicked two extra points. It’s two yards.
Are you confident your team can get two yards at least once out of two separate tries? Then play some Madden ball, and go for the two point conversions.
Steelers’ coach Mike Tomlin has gotten the hint, attempting two times as many two-point conversions as any other team, and converting on 70% of them. Pittsburgh has a high-powered offense with numerous threats, but it’s fair to think that many NFL teams can gain two yards more often than not.
The playoffs are drawing near, and every possession matters. Typically, it’s the teams that are taking more risks and being more aggressive that have more success. We all remember the conservative style that downed the Packers last year in the NFC Championship Game versus Seattle. Taking his foot off the gas pedal put Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy in hot water.
Meanwhile, Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots have long since adopted the reputation of throttling foes even when the game is well in hand.
This may not be perfectly viable for all teams, given the talent the Patriots have on the coaching roster and the player roster, but it’s that type of aggressive mentality that’s certainly contributed to their success. Perhaps taking more chances and pushing the ball when there’s momentum can put teams over the edge at the tail end of this season.
There are certainly reasons for punting and for taking the extra point, and circumstances in which that’s the optimal play. I’m not disputing that, but I can say with confidence that if teams ramp up the amount of times they go for it on 4th and short in opposing territory, and take a shot at two point conversions more often, they’re going to score more. It’s as simple as that. And I’d like to think NFL games might become a bit more interesting as well.