1. Chris Johnson
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Maurice Jones-Drew
4. Ray Rice
5. Steven Jackson
6. Michael Turner
7. Frank Gore
Notes: If you have a top-7 pick, I think you have to grab one of these RBs. The position is just too top-heavy to go WR or QB, regardless of scoring format….In a PPR league, you could make a case for Rice being taken #1 overall. I personally wouldn’t do it with Willis McGahee still taking goal-line carries, but Rice sure does catch a lot of passes.
Late Round 1, 2
8. Shonn Greene
9. DeAngelo Williams
10. Rashard Mendenhall
Notes: Having a late pick in the first round leaves owners in a tough position this year. Their available RBs are usually the ones in this group. While all of them are capable of producing RB1 numbers, they are safer as high-end #2 RBs. However, you could get by with one of these as your #1 RB if you pair them with a stud QB or WR. None of these backs catch a lot of balls, but all of them (other than D-Will) are the “bell-cows” for their respective teams……If Greene can stay healthy I like his chances as the lead-runner on a run-first team.
Round 3
11. Arian Foster
12. Ryan Mathews
13. Cedric Benson
14. Matt Forte
15. LeSean McCoy
16. Jonathan Stewart
Notes: I don’t like how Benson finished the second half of last year (injuries/worse production), but he is a decent value this late…. You won’t see anyone else ranking Forte this high heading into drafts this year, but I think he bounces back in a huge way. Chester Taylor may take away some catches but he certainly won’t be a TD vulture. Plus, for how bad Forte was last year, he still finished 19th amongst RBs.
Late Round 3, 4
17. Pierre Thomas
18. Ronnie Brown
19. Jamaal Charles
20. Ryan Grant
21. Beanie Wells
Notes: The hype has gone too far with Charles. Thomas Jones and his 5 straight 1,100 yard rushing seasons can’t be ignored.
Late Round 4, 5
22. Knowshon Moreno
23. Jahvid Best
24. Joseph Addai
25. C.J. Spiller
26. Marion Barber
Notes: Arian Foster takes a giant leap forward after Ben Tate was put on the I.R. Also working in Foster’s favor is the fact that Slaton has done nothing to impress during training camp….Just like Foster, Spiller makes a climb up the rankings with the injuries to both Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch….I might be a little too obsessed with Best. I know he plays for the Lions, and I know he is injury prone but he will get a ton of touches. Plus, have you seen this guy play in college? He’s unreal.
Round 6, 7
27. Thomas Jones
28. Clinton Portis
29. Felix Jones
30. Ricky Williams
31. Brandon Jacobs
Notes: I have a hard time putting too much stock in Portis. Not only do I wonder if he has enough left in the tank, I also worry about Mike Shanahan’s notorious RBBCs.
Round 8, 9
32. Michael Bush
33. Jerome Harrison
34. Ahmad Bradshaw
35. Justin Forsett
36. Reggie Bush
37. Fred Jackson
38. Donald Brown
Notes: Bradshaw and Jackson were quietly very productive last season. They make very solid RB4s….The rest of the RBs in this group have tremendous upside, but their floor is awfully low as well.
Round 10, 11, 12
39. Tim Hightower
40. LaDainian Tomlinson
41. Fred Taylor
42. Montario Hardesty
43. Bernard Scott
Notes: I still think Hightower is being vastly undervalued in drafts. He is the starting RB and a better pass-catcher than Beanie Wells. Hightower could also steal goal-line carries….I don’t think LT will have a very big role if Greene stays healthy, but he is at least one of the top handcuffs given the durability concerns with Greene….My biggest sleeper at RB for value this year is Bernard Scott. I don’t trust Benson to stay healthy all year, so Scott could explode.
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Justin Forsett is my sleeper back this year – think he’ll have at least 1300 and 10 TDs
Wow, that’s a bold prediction. I mean I like Forsett, especially in a PPR but I can’t put too much faith in him due to an inevitable RBBC.