It is the job of John Groce and his players to be focusing only on Michigan State this Sunday. It is the job of the Illini basketball media to do the opposite. People who only tell you what Illini basketball did and not what they could or might do aren’t journalists; they’re stenographers.
Coaches and players are only doing their jobs when they espouse all the pointless “one game at a time,” “next man up” and “we’re 0-0 right now” cliches. Media members who print/air those phrases are committing journalistic malpractice however. It’s our job to look ahead. In college basketball, more than any other sport, the postseason is everything.
People don’t remember nor do they care what the conference standings were once the tourney starts.
Let’s look ahead and assess your Illinois Fighting Illini basketball NCAA Tournament chances. All figures according to RealTimeRPI.
BAD LOSSES: trip to Nebraska hurts (RPI 112). The non-conference losses to Miami and Oregon aren’t bad though as both of those teams are with Illinois in the bubble conversation.
SIGNATURE WINS: Maryland RPI 14, Michigan State RPI 39, Baylor RPI 16 (see these games DO MATTER. That Las Vegas Invitational win was huge! I’m aware that interest in November college basketball in general is laughably terrible; it really shouldn’t be.)
RPI: 46
SOS: 53
POTENTIAL FUTURE SIGNATURE WINS: Michigan State (39) on Sunday
POTENTIAL BAD LOSSES: There are home dates with Nebraska and Northwestern remaining.
PROJECTED FINISH 3-2 down the stretch, winning all the home games, losing all the road contests, according to GAMER. That would get the Illini in. Seems fairly reasonable and expected too. Real Time RPI projects them to finish 20-11, 10-8 in B1G play. Illinois would be safe then regardless of how the Big Ten Tournament turns out.
It’s pushing it, but 12 loss teams do often get NCAA at-large berths. 13 loss teams do not. Only one team got in last year with 13 losses. Next you have to factor in that all bracket projections, including ours, don’t have the “bid stealers” included yet.
When conference championship week gets here, there were be upsets galore in the conference tournaments. You always get one or two mid-majors to low-majors that end up bursting the bubble of those on the #11 seed to #12 seed line. Right now though Illinois is safely on the #10 seed line.
As it stands currently, Illini basketball is safely in.
OTHER B1G BUBBLE TEAM TOURNEY ANALYSES/POSTSEASON PROJECTIONS:
ILLINOIS (previous edition)
Paul M. Banks owns, operates and writes The Sports Bank.net, which is partnered with Fox Sports Digital, eBay, Google News and CBS Interactive Inc.
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