I can’t believe I am sitting here writing this. We are in the final international break for the Premier League season and Tottenham. Yeah, you read that correctly, Tottenham. Not only are Spurs a lock for a European qualification spot, but they are also one of the front runners to sneak into the Champions League next season via that precious 4th place finish.
It seems like it will most likely be bitter North London rivals Arsenal and Tottenham fighting it out for that final Champions League qualification spot. Will it be the return of St. Totteringham’s Day? Or will North London be White? Let’s not forget there is still a North London derby to be played that is yet to be rescheduled.
In this series, Paul & I are analyzing the run-in for the European competition hopefuls.
Liverpool & City is way out in front, so we haven’t bothered with them & Chelsea looks a pretty sure thing in third place.
We will look at the current standings, attempt to predict the results of the remaining matches for each side to see if we can gauge how the top of the Premier League table might look come the final whistle on May 21st.
Current Standings for European Places
4th Arsenal FC 28 matches played, +13 goal differential, 54 pts
5th Tottenham Hotspur 29 matches played, +11 goal differential, 51 pts
6th Manchester United 29 matches played, +8 goal differential, 50 pts
7th West Ham 30 matches played, +10 goal differential, 48 pts
8th Wolverhampton Wanderers 30 matches played, +5 goal differential, 46 pts
For the uninitiated 4th spot lands you in the Champions League & fifth and sixth get you a spot in the Europa League. Seventh gets you a place in the ugly step-sister of both of the competitions, the soulless shameless money grab that is the Europa Conference League.
Run In Predictions
Sun Apr 3, Newcastle, H, D, 2-2
Sat Apr 10, Villa, A, W, 4-0
Sat Apr 16, Brighton, H, W, 2-1
Sat Apr 23, Brentford, A, W, 1-0
Sat Apr 30, Leicester, H, D, 1-1
Sat May 7, Liverpool, A, L, 1-2
Sun May 15, Burnley, H, W, 3-0
Championship Sunday, May 22, Norwich, A, D, 3-3
Arsenal, TBC, H, L 1-2
Final numbers: 66 pts, GD +19
Spurs Bottom Line
So the Spurs rollercoaster looks like it is going to continue if my predictions are correct. Dropped points in winnable games against Leicester and then lowly Norwich on Championship Sunday and their erratic form at times this season is going to cost them a spot in the 2022/23 Champions League draw.
Final Standings for European Places
So that’s the final contender in our ‘Top Four/European Football Chances Analysis Series’. If Paul and I have got this spot-on, here’s how fourth through eighth place will look at the final whistle on May 22nd:
4th Arsenal FC 38 matches played, +22 goal differential, 77 pts
5th Tottenham Hotspur 38 matches played, +19 goal differential, 66 pts
6th Manchester United 38 matches played, +9 goal differential, 65 pts
7th West Ham 38 matches played, +15 goal differential, 59 pts
8th Wolverhampton Wanderers 38 matches played, +1 goal differential, 53 pts
Top Four/European Football Chances Analysis Series
United Arsenal FC Tottenham Wolves West Ham
Stuart Kavanagh is an up-and-coming sports journalist from Melbourne, Australia. Along with being the owner of the sports and entertainment website thepyrrhic.com, he is also the co-host of the ‘After Extra Time’ podcast. Football mad, he is always down for debate and discussion at @stueyissickofit on Twitter.