Even though Thanksgiving isn’t until next week, the holiday tournament season is among us. The Puerto Rico Tip-Off starts Thursday and with top 25 caliber teams Michigan, VCU, and Georgetown, it is a competitive field. Here is a preview of the three-day event and my predictions.
THURSDAY
Kansas State vs. Charlotte, 9:30 AM, ESPNU
K-State is down from last season when they shared the Big 12 title and that showed when the Wildcats dropped their opener to Northern Colorado. Freshman Marcus Foster has provided a huge lift early in the season, averaging 16.7 points in his first three games.
Charlotte has a top heavy roster with five guys averaging at least 13 points and six rebounds per game. They did lose to on the road to a competitive Charleston team by one point are poised for the update.
Prediction: Charlotte 73, Kansas State 68
Georgetown vs. Northeastern, 12:00 PM, ESPNU
The addition of UCLA transfer Joshua Smith has given JT3 a legit big man who is capable of dominating down low. He looks more invested this season than he did during his short stint with the Bruins and will be a handful down low for Northeastern considering Scott Eatherton is their biggest guy 6-8, 220 pounds. The Hoyas starting backcourt of Markel Starks and D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera has gotten off to a solid start as well so if the Huskies double down low, G-Town has the shooters to make them pay.
Prediction: Georgetown 81, Northeastern 62
Michigan vs. Long Beach State, 4:00 PM, ESPN2
The Wolverines suffered a tough road loss at a hostile Iowa State but perhaps the bright spot from that defeat was the return of Mitch McGary who missed Michigan’s first two games with a back injury. McGary looked as active as he was during the team’s run to the National Championship game and gives Michigan a low post scoring option. Nik Stauskas and Caris LeVert have elevated their play as sophomores and are a combined 18-34 from three-point range.
Long Beach State has been a dangerous mid-major the past few years and plays one of the toughest non-conference schedules out there which already includes road losses at Arizona and Kansas State. The 49ers don’t have the talent of recent years though and will have a tough time slowing down the Wolverines.
Prediction: Michigan 74, Long Beach State 59
VCU vs. Florida State, 6:30 PM, ESPNU
Shaka Smart’s squad scored a huge road last week against in-state foe, Virginia. Their “havoc” attack on both ends makes a difficult match-up for any opponent and Smart is going ten deep on his bench to keep guys fresh.
FSU has jumped out to a solid start including a nice road win at UCF. The ‘Noles can get up and down as well, scoring 87 points per game so they won’t back down from VCU’s up-tempo style of play. The Seminoles also have the depth at guard with Ian Miller, Devon Bookert, Aaron Thomas, Montay Brandon to attack the pressure so expect a fast-paced, high scoring game.
Prediction: VCU 87, Florida State 80
FRIDAY
Charlotte vs. Georgetown, 1:30 PM, ESPN2 or ESPNU
Whether it’s Charlotte or K-State, G-Town has a pretty easy road to the Championship game. The Hoyas have the defensive capability to slow down the 49ers talented three-guard look. On the flip side, it will be a challenge for Charlotte to defend Starks and Smith-Rivera inside with Smith demanding so much attention down low.
Prediction: Georgetown 72 Charlotte 58
Michigan vs. VCU, 4:00 PM, ESPN2 or ESPNU
This Puerto Rico Tip-Off Semifinal is a rematch of last year’s third round NCAA Tournament game in which the Wolverines whipped VCU, 78-53. Michigan was able to handle the Commodores’ havoc thanks to Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. With buy those guys gone, how will freshman point guard Derrick Walton and sophomore Spike Albrecht respond? I also question how McGary’s back can hold up in back-to-back days so I think VCU gets their revenge.
Prediction: VCU 73, Michigan 71
SUNDAY
THIRD PLACE GAME
Michigan vs. Charlotte, 3:30 PM, ESPN2
Having Saturday off should help McGary’s back recover and he should be a force on both ends. A side note about Michigan; I would like to see more from Glenn Robinson III in Puerto Rico. He hasn’t shot the ball well early this season and was supposed to become “the guy” for the Wolverines but it has been the Stauskas/LeVert combo that has led the way. A big showing for GR3 at the Puerto Rico Tip-Off would really help his NBA Draft stock.
Prediction: Michigan 84, Charlotte 67
CHAMPIONSHIP
Georgetown vs. VCU, 6:00 PM, ESPN2
The Hoyas do not have a lot of depth in their backcourt and the deep VCU squad should wear them down since this will be their third game in four days. That havoc style should also render Joshua Smith somewhat ineffective since he doesn’t get up and down the floor at the pace that is needed from a big man when playing the Commodores. If the Hoyas have any chance in this one, they must control the tempo and keep this a half-court game without turning the ball over a ton.
Prediction: VCU 68, Georgetown 59
David Kay is a senior feature NBA Draft, NBA, and college basketball writer for the Sports Bank. He also heads up the NBA and college basketball material at Walter Football.com and is a former contributor at The Washington Times Communities. David has appeared on numerous national radio programs spanning from Cleveland to New Orleans to Milwaukee to Honolulu. He also had the most accurate 2011 NBA Mock Draft and the most accurate 2012 NBA Mock Draft on the internet (Yup, repeat champ… #humblebrag), and finished with the second most accurate 2013 NBA Mock Draft (nearly a three-peat.) You can follow him on Twitter at David_Kmiecik.