Warning: I will not be responsible if you copy this bracket and are out of your NCAA Tournament pool by Sunday. However, if you do listen to my college basketball wisdom and win some money, I want 20% of the pot or at least a shout-out on your twitter or facebook page.
The Midwest Regional is by the far the most brutal of the four. Unbeaten Wichita State cemented their status as a one seed but has a rough draw with both Kentucky and Louisville standing in their way just to get to the Elite 8. The bottom half of the bracket features Michigan and Duke. Here is a preview and my NCAA Tournament predictions.
Bracket Overview:
Louisville’s overall body of work was worthy of a four seed but with how well they played down the stretch, some thought they were deserving as a two seed. Instead, the Cardinals were given a four and an opening round matchup against Manhattan, coached by Steve Masiello who played at Kentucky for Rick Pitino and coached under him at Louisville as well. This bracket showed how the Atlantic 10 got a ton of love from the committee as #5 St. Louis and #6 UMass were over-seeded in my opinion. The SEC also got a smack in the mouth with pre-season #1 Kentucky ending up as an eight seed. Iowa wasn’t as safe as most thought since they will be playing in one of the two at-large play-in games; both are in this bracket.
Most Intriguing First Round Game: #7 Texas vs. #10 Arizona State
The Longhorns were one of the most surprising teams in the country this past season without a whole lot of heralded talent. ASU relies heavily on their experienced trio of Jahii Carson, Jermaine Marshall, and Jordan Bachynski. Carson versus Isaiah Taylor will be a terrific battle of lightning quick playmakers.
Opening Round Upset: #11Tennessee/Iowa over #6 UMass
Whoever wins the play-in game between Tennessee and Iowa should knock off the Minutemen. The Vols and Hawkeyes have contrasting styles of play. Tennessee is physical down low and has a ton of length on the wing. Iowa is a high-octane offense but brings little to the floor defensively. UMass peaked too early in the season for my taste and hasn’t played well down the stretch.
Sleeper: #8 Kentucky
With all the talent John Calipari has, the potential is there to put it all together when it counts most. UK hasn’t been able to do it yet but ability can win out in the NCAA Tournament. The Harrison twins need to play better than they have, James Young must knock down shots, Julius Randle has to be beastly inside, and Willie Cauley-Stein has the ability to own the paint defensively.
5 Players to Watch:
Russ Smith, Louisville
Russ-diculous is a dynamic scorer and not afraid to be the guy which has been both a gift and a curse as Cards’ fans have learned. He could be this year’s Kemba Walker and he knows how to help lead a team to a National Championship as we learned last year.
Fred VanVleet, Wichita State
After being a solid reserve as a freshman during the Shockers’ Final Four run last year, VanVleet has been awesome in transitioning to Wichita State’s floor general this year. His 4-1 assist-to-turnover ratio is among the tops in the country and he knows when to be a scorer or when he needs to set up his teammates. 34-0 wouldn’t have been possible without his development.
Jabari Parker, Duke
Consistency has been an issue for stretches this season and Parker needs to be steady for the Blue Devils to make a deep run. Since Duke has dangerous scorers like Rodney Hood, Rasheed Sulaimon, Quinn Cook, and Andre Dawkins, they don’t need Parker to force the issue and drop 25 a night. If he can play within himself, Duke is as dangerous as any team in this regional, possibly the country.
Nik Stauskas, Michigan
The Big Ten Player of the Year made huge strides this season improving his all-around scoring ability. I’m still amazed the Wolverines were able to win the Big Ten regular season despite losing Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. to the NBA Draft, and Mitch McGary going down with injury. Stauskas was a huge reason why and will be the catalyst for Michigan’s drive to a second straight Final Four.
T.J Warren, N.C. State
Warren won the ACC Player of the Year as he was the third leading scorer in the country. He can score from just about anywhere on the floor and posted nine games with at least 30 points. Most didn’t think the Wolfpack deserved to be dancing and if they are going to prove their doubters wrong, Warren needs to ball out.
Opening Round Picks:
Wichita State over Cal Poly
Kentucky over Kansas State
St. Louis over N.C. State
Louisville over Manhattan
Tennessee over UMass
Duke over Mercer
Arizona State over Texas
Michigan over Wofford
Second Round:
Wichita State over Kentucky
Louisville over St. Louis
Duke over Tennessee
Michigan over Wofford
Sweet 16:
Louisville over Wichita State
Duke over Michigan
Elite 8:
Louisville over Duke
David Kay is a senior feature NBA Draft, NBA, and college basketball writer for the Sports Bank. He also heads up the NBA and college basketball material at Walter Football.com and is a former contributor at The Washington Times Communities. David has appeared on numerous national radio programs spanning from Cleveland to New Orleans to Honolulu to Milwaukee. He also had the most accurate 2011 NBA Mock Draft and the most accurate 2012 NBA Mock Draft on the internet , AND the second most accurate 2013 NBA Mock Draft. (Yup, nearly 3peat champ… #humblebrag.)
You can follow him on Twitter at David_Kmiecik.