The end of the tennis season is almost upon us, but first there’s the small matter of the final Masters 1000 of the year the BNP Paribas Masters. It is our view that the scheduling of this event, the conditions and the recent history all suggest an outsider lifting the title at the end of the week.
Scheduling
We are right at the end of another grueling season here on the ATP world tour and the players are looking jaded. Consider the olympics were thrown in the middle as well and you can really see why the end cannot come any sooner. So why on earth have the powers that be scheduled a tournament right after the Swiss indoor and just a few days before the World tour finals in London? Well there is no need to guess at Federer’s thoughts on the matter – the defending champ has pulled out: “I’m not going to Paris, it’s too much for me,” said Federer. “I’ve already told (tournament director) Guy Forget. I have some niggling stuff that I want to heal, I don’t want to take a chance for London”.
Conditions
Conditions in Dercy have been slow for the last couple of years and it is needless to say that this works against the top players. A tour official described this weeks surface as “a little bit slower again than last year”. We can only imagine exactly how slow it is but my guess is that it will play even slower than last week at Basel – a speed that almost certainly effected the top players.
History
Roger Federer is the defending champion, but last year was his first victory after countless times trying. Anyway, he isn’t playing. Novak Djokovic has only won it one and Murray and Nadal have a grand total of 0 victories between them. Recent history therefore suggests that the above factors of fatigue and timing really harm the chances of the big guys in this tournament.
So who will win?
Well Djok and Murray are still clearly the favourites and they have been kept apart in the draw. Lots of people will be backing Del Potro after winning last week but Del Potro doesn’t tempt me either at a shortish price and having played two long weeks back-to-back and having already qualified for the Finals
Jeremy’s tip
Go for Tomas Berdych – a former winner of this tournament, at decent odds and a decent chance of victory.
Good luck and enjoy the tournament
Jeremy Collins is blogger and a sports fanatic. You can check out his latest tips and the top tennis odds on Youwin.com