Don’t let the 3-1 record fool you. A win over two mid-majors (one that’s only been in FBS for three years) and a lowly FCS team doesn’t resolve anything. Last year’s Illini football team went 3-1 in the non-conference, in a much more impressive manner than this year, and yet still ended up a train wreck in league play.
Looking at the 2014 Illini football winning percentage of .750 makes one see just the trees; not the forest. You must remember that Tim Beckman has gone 1-19 versus teams from the power five conferences while leading Illinois.
Continuing with old, overused metaphors involving trees and forests, Illini football has become a tree falling in the forest that no one is around to hear. Illinois is quickly falling down to the level of DePaul basketball. Illinois might not be at DPU’s depth in wins and losses yet; but their brand and reputation is quickly reaching similarly dire straits.
Even a 6-6 season with a bowl berth won’t be enough.
This is your #Illini football attendance. At an afternoon kickoff. On a perfect 84 degree day. #B1G pic.twitter.com/LIiVxqEw38
— Paul M. Banks (@PaulMBanks) September 20, 2014
Purdue and Northwestern are very winnable.
Wisconsin, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, Ohio State and Penn State are not. Unless the Illini somehow pull a complete 180 regarding what they’ve shown us in the time of possession battle. Those six teams have a a rushing attack that is much stronger than the four Illinois has faced. And you’ve seen what the Illini run defense can do so far.
However, for argument’s sake, let’s say the Illini are favored versus both Purdue and Northwestern, and indeed close the deal. And then something fluky happens and they pull off an upset in one of those six other games where they’ll be underdogs. A bowl berth, and a .500 record still doesn’t fix the much larger problem.
You see from the photos above what the attendance was at the Illini football game versus Texas State today.
This was long BEFORE the storms rolled in and the lightning delayed the game two hours. The University is trying, they offered “family four packs” (four tickets for $49) to get people in the building this week.
And after the storm delay, the school made a very generous offer, in which they let everyone back inside, whether they even had a ticket or not. It’s a noble effort, but it shows they’re aware of the brand crisis as well.
At All State Arena, Blue Demons basketball has even worse attendance; on a more consistent basis.
Both DePaul basketball and Illini football used to make the postseason consistently. Both programs used to have a very large following in Chicago, and in the state of Illinois as a whole. Both are mere afterthoughts in this town today. Neither program resonates in the Chicago sports landscape today. They could easily get the mojo back, but it would take more than just winning. It would take at least five to seven years of solid, consistent winning and strong showings in the postseason too. That’s what it’s going to take to get the people back.
Make no mistake; it’s not the fault of just Tim Beckman or just Oliver Purnell.
The biggest problem at Illinois is with Athletic Director Mike Thomas. Just like DePaul’s biggest problem is with their A.D. Jean Lenti Ponsetto. Illinois needing desperation points in the fourth quarter to beat three teams that the casual fan has never even heard of will not win any hearts and minds.
At both DePaul and Illinois, you had a long string of coaches that performed mediocre at best. Then came the disaster hires of Purnell and Beckman. Beckman should not be given a fourth season in Champaign; Purnell will soon begin his undeserved fifth season in Lincoln Park.
To quote a business school saying, “don’t keep throwing good money after bad.”
A sunk cost is a sunk cost. Just cut ties and move on.
Mike Thomas should suffer the same fate, but he will not.
He’s not going anywhere as he recently received a long extension and a big raise. You can replace Beckman on November 30th with Bill Cubit, or whoever the next guy will be, but you’re still going to have major long term issues of brand identity to resolve. And can you trust Thomas to find the right replacement? University of Illinois football has to rebuild it’s entire reputation. That trip to Washington was a tremendous buzzkill. And there was very little buzz to begin with.
Beating Texas State didn’t make much of an impact. Squeezing three wins out of the Big Ten and reaching a sixth tier bowl game doesn’t turn things around either. If that’s really possible.
Beckman is a really nice guy who is just in over his head. He does not have the public presentation skills nor the coaching ability to lead a storied program that has produced Red Grange, Dick Butkus, George Halas, Jim Grabowski, six Rose Bowls, 15 Big Ten titles (all before 2001) and five national championships (all before 1951). We’re long past the point of diminishing returns in criticizing Beckman.
When Thomas bought out Ron Zook he said his goal was to win Big Ten games. Well, Beckman has gone 1-16 in conference play, and it looks highly unlikely that his team will be favored in more than one or two league contests this season. Therefore, if you have any “hot takes” to make about Illini football, those should be directed at Mike Thomas, not Tim Beckman.
Ponsetto did nothing to stop her only revenue producing sport from becoming irrelevant. Thomas has overseen his primary revenue producing sport fade into obscurity. He still has a chance though to save it from reaching DePaul’s depths.
Paul M. Banks owns, operates and sometimes writes The Sports Bank.net, which is partners with Fox Sports and Yahoo. Read his features stories in the Chicago Tribune RedEye edition. Listen to him on 1620 The Zone. Follow him on Twitter (@paulmbanks) His work has been featured in hundreds of media outlets including The Washington Post and ESPN2