Marquette vs. Wisconsin is one of the best non-conference rivalries in all of college basketball. For the 119th time in program history, the Badgers and Golden Eagles will square off for in-state bragging rights. Marquette has struggled a bit out of the gates this season with a 5-3 record but has won the past two meetings against Wisconsin. Meanwhile, the 9-0 Badgers have one of the most impressive early season resumes having already beat St. John’s, Florida, St. Louis, West Virginia, and Virginia.
The Sports Bank’s resident Marquette expert David Kay and Wisconsin guru Nick Grays break down Saturday’s battle at the Kohl Center.
(DK) Right now, Marquette is:
Frustrating. Their best win came against George Washington in the Semifinals of the Wooden Legacy and have lost against quality opponents like Ohio State, Arizona State, and San Diego State. Three-point shooting has been the Achilles’ heel early on for the Golden Eagles as they are shooting 27% as a team which is actually up from the 18% MU was at through their first four games.
Inconsistency has run rampant as well. Through eight games, the Golden Eagles have had five different leading game scorers. While that speaks to the balance of Buzz Williams’ team, it also highlights the fact that this team doesn’t have a true go-to scoring option and has to try and find the hot hand on a nightly basis. Another thing that has been lacking from previous Marquette teams is the toughness that Buzz’s teams have built a reputation of having.
(NG)Right now, Wisconsin is:
Riding high. Wisconsin is off to it’s fastest start in 20 years with a perfect 9-0 record. Not only can they win with lots of offense (103-85 win over North Dakota), they can do it with straight defense too (48-38 win at Virginia). It also doesn’t matter much where they’re playing as the Badgers have three neutral site wins and two true road victories.
While Dave mentioned inconsistency with Marquette, the Badgers thrive on consistency. You pretty much know what you’re getting with Bo Ryan who became the 9th Big Ten coach to win 300 games with the impressive win at Virginia. Sam Dekker and Frank Kaminsky have been the breakout stars for Ryan’s squad thus far.
(DK) Marquette should be able to take advantage of:
Their physicality inside. The 1-2 punch of Chris Otule and Davante Gardner are combining to average more than 21 points and almost 12 rebounds per game. The Badgers really run a four-guard look with Sam Dekker technically playing the four and only have two post options. Frank Kaminsky is a bit soft against stronger opponents and freshman Nigel Hayes is long, active, and physical but only stands 6’7″. Gardner specifically needs to establish himself on the block and his teammates need to feed him the ball almost every time down the floor. Marquette is a much better team when they run their offense inside-out by letting Gardner either take advantage of a one-on-one match-up or find the open man when he is doubled.
(NG) Wisconsin should be able to take advantage of:
Their inability to make or defend the three. Missing shots behind the arc is nothing new for the Golden Eagles who shot a woeful 29.6 % in 2013 and are at 27.2% this year. However, failing to defend the perimeter has become an even bigger problem for Marquette. In 2013, they held opponents to 32.3 percent from three-land which ranked 88th. It’s now up to 33.9 % which is all the way down to 196th. The Badgers have become one of the best three-point shooting teams in the nation and they should be able to take advantage of that.
(DK) What scares me most about Wisconsin:
How effectively they shoot the ball from three, especially at home. The Badgers are a team that tends to live and die by the three ball and so far this season, they are living by it. As a team, Wisconsin is shooting 40% from distance (even after their dismal 5-23 performance at Virginia Wednesday night) and all five of their starters are capable of lighting it up from deep. Marquette MUST defend the three-point line on Saturday and make the Badger guards try to beat them off the bounce.
(NG) What scares me most about Marquette:
The balance of their team and more specifically their experience in the post. Not only are Otule and Gardner big bodies who rack up points and rebounds, they are extremely good at keeping opponents from scoring inside. Ryan and the Badgers can pretty much game plan with the notion that they will not make an impact in the post. If Marquette figures out a way to stop the Badgers three-ball or Wisconsin has a cold night, it could bode well for the road team.
(DK) Saturday’s game will come down to:
If Marquette can make three’s. It’s really that simple. If MU goes 2-13 from three, they don’t stand a chance. If they end up somewhere in the 7-15 range and the Gardner/Otule combo does work down low, the Golden Eagles are capable of picking up the road upset. Wisconsin locked down Virginia on Wednesday night holding the Cavaliers to 38 points so we know Bo’s Boys will defend their tails off and proved they can win comfortably even when they struggle offensively.
(NG) Saturday’s game will come down to:
Coaching. I can guarantee that both coaches know each factoid and point that we made in this article. Both will look to exploit opposing weaknesses and will make this a hard fought basketball that the entire state of Wisconsin has come accustomed to. I wouldn’t at all be surprised by a game that’s an old-fashioned defensive battle like what the Badgers and Cavaliers did in Virginia. At the same time, it could be a back-and-forth high-scoring contest if the three-ball is falling. That’s the beauty of Wisconsin-Marquette, there’s some mystery to how it’s going to go down.
Predictions:
(DK) Wisconsin 71, Marquette 66
Marquette only has two chances left at picking up a quality non-conference win; Saturday and December 21st when they play New Mexico in Las Vegas. MU hasn’t shown the consistency on the offensive end to get the job done against Wisconsin’s stout defense and after struggling shooting the deep ball versus UVA, the Badgers will feel at home on the Kohl Center floor and should knock down their share of triples.
(NG) Wisconsin 64, Marquette 58
There’s no way I can pick against the Badgers with the way they’re playing right now. Especially when you consider the game is at the Kohl Center where Wisconsin rarely loses. Marquette hasn’t shown me that they are capable of beating anyone decent away from home and they were really bad against Ohio State.
David Kay is a senior feature NBA Draft, NBA, and college basketball writer for the Sports Bank. He also heads up the NBA and college basketball material at Walter Football.com and is a former contributor at The Washington Times Communities. David has appeared on numerous national radio programs spanning from Cleveland to New Orleans to Honolulu to Milwaukee. He also had the most accurate 2011 and 2012 NBA Mock Draft on the internet, AND the second most accurate 2013 NBA Mock Draft. (Yup, nearly 3peat champ… #humblebrag.) You can follow him on Twitter at David_Kmiecik.
Nick Grays is a senior writer at the Sports Bank where he covers the Wisconsin Badgers and Green Bay Packers. He also enjoys sharing Fantasy Advice and pretends to be a Golf expert from time-to-time. Follow him on Twitter by clicking here or visit his blog Nick Knows Best. If social media is not your thing, shoot him an email at grays@uwalumni.com.