The next massive mixed martial arts event comes this Saturday night, February 4 from the UFC APEX in Enterprise, Nevada. It’s UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac, a five-bout card with a phenomenal main event.
American Derrick Lewis (26-10) will duke it out with Moldovan Serghei Spivac (15-3) in a headliner that features two Orthodox fighters who both stand 6’3′.
If you’re looking for a bookmaker for MMA fights with the action on this bout, most of them will give you -230 odds on Spivac, with Lewis being backed at +130. Both money lines seem to be pretty fair market value, considering the records and accomplishments of both fighters.
This fight was originally supposed to be staged last November, but while the event was in progress, Lewis had to withdraw due to a non-COVID and non-weight cutting illness. So this once cancelled bout is a long time coming. Fun fact- UFC originally targeted a return to Seoul, South Korea for this fight, before moving it to the Las Vegas metropolitan area.
If there is one city with a lot of rich history in the fight games, it’s definitely Vegas. While both fighters are 6’3″, Lewis is slightly heavier, weighing 263 pounds to Spivac’s 254. His 79 inch reach is also one better than Spivac’s 78.
However, Spivac is superior in TD avg. (Average Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes), 4.09 to 0.60 and TD ACC (Takedown Accuracy), to the tune of 63.64% to 28.13%. He’s also got the advantage in SIG STR LPM (significant strikes landed per minute) 3.79 to 2.57 and in SIG STR ACC (significant strike accuracy) 63.61% to 52.70%.
That all said, here’s how the rest of the lineup shapes out. The main undercard, fight four features American Devin Clark (13-7) vs South Korean Da-Un Jung (15-3-1). Jung is favored to the tune of -230, while Clark is +190.
In fight three, the Polish international Marcin Tybura (23-7), is favored -155 over Blagoy Ivanov (19-4) who is backed at +133. Match four pits South Korean Dooho Choi (14-4) who is favored at -190 over Canadian Kyle Nelson (13-5) at +160.
Finally, in match one, Japanese international Yusaku Kinoshita (6-1) who is favored -300. American Adam Fugitt (8-3) is available on the money line at +240.
The fight is available via pay-per-view, and it can be streamed on ESPN+
Prediction
While Lewis has a nine-pound advantage in this heavyweight matchup, it is Spivac that more looks the part of a champion right now. It is quite clear, from all the fight’s promotional material, that Spivac is in better shape right now. He also has the superior CV.
Our pick: Spivac wins decisively.
Paul M. Banks is the owner/manager of The Sports Bank. He’s also the author of “Transatlantic Passage: How the English Premier League Redefined Soccer in America,” and “No, I Can’t Get You Free Tickets: Lessons Learned From a Life in the Sports Media Industry.”
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