Now that we’re on to Round 2 of the Western Conference Stanley Cup playoff series, the drama and the intensity should ratchet up, even higher.
As I was a tad late in submitting my predictions for the 1st Round series between the Chicago Blackhawks and the Vancouver Canucks – by the way, I did accurately predict that the Canucks would win their playoff series in seven games – I am able to offer my predictions for the remaining Western Conference Playoff series, two of which involve NHL Central Division teams: The Nashville Predators and the Detroit Red Wings.
I will begin by analyzing the playoff series between the Nashville Predators and the Vancouver Canucks.
Tomorrow, I will offer my predictions and analysis for the seriesbetween the Detroit Red Wings and the San Jose Sharks.
Well, the Vancouver Canucks avoided one of the most embarrassing 3-0 playoff series leading meltdowns in Stanley Cup playoff history. While it was their nemesis and arch enemy, the defending Stanley Cup champion Chicago Blackhawks, the Blackhawks were not the same team as their championship team. No, this was a team that wheezed into the playoffs, depending upon the Dallas Stars to lose their final regular season game against the fast-fading Minnesota Wild.
However, as is often said in NCAA basketball lingo, “Survive and advance”.
No matter the path taken, the Vancouver Canucks were the runaway freight train of the National Hockey League (NHL), especially during the regular season, easily winning the President’s Trophy for the most accumulated points.
On the surface, this appears to be an unfair fight, especially given the fact that the Predators don’t possess the most offensively gifted nor prolific scoring teams, particularly on their forward lines.
Add to that the Predators have, after six previous unsuccessful tries,
finally won a playoff series, so an entirely different story could unfold. Winning their first playoff series, combined with the Canucks potentially damaged psyche over nearly blowing one of the most apparently lopsided advantages in recent history, could present an entirely different result.
I offer my predictions by assessing each team’s offense, defense, special teams, goaltending and finally each squad’s “X-Factor” – no, not the new show coming this fall to Fox (shameless plug), rather, the intangibles that could decide the outcome of this series. I will then conclude with my prediction as to how I see this series playing out – who wins the series and in how many games they will do it.
Here’s the Rundown:
Offense:
The Canucks possess no shortage of offensive firepower as the Canucks lead the NHL in scoring with 3.11 goals/game. They are lead of course, by the Sedin twins, Daniel and Henrik. While Henrik captured the NHL’s Hart Trophy as the league MVP, last season, Daniel is making a case for himself this season by registering 104 points. Don’t feel bad for Henrik, though as he registered 94 total points and led the NHL with 75 assists. But thisteam is more than the twins as it’s loaded with a bevy of complimentary and secondary scoring resources, Ryan Kesler and Alexandre Burrows to name a few.
On the other hand, the Preds aren’t exactly considered an offensive juggernaut as the Preds finished 23rd in goals/game. Their leading scorer, Sergei Kostitsyn, registered only 50 points during the regular season. In fact, two of their top six leading scorers were defensemen – Shea Weber and Ryan Suter. As for secondary scoring, the Preds are a bit deficient as well, having only two players – Kostitsyn and Patric Hornqvist – scored more than 20 goals during the regular season. However, during the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, the Preds were the NHL’s 2nd most prolific playoff-scoring team, netting 3.65 goals/game, let by Mike Fisher with three goals and three assists during their six-game playoff series victory against the Anaheim Ducks. However, many Predators joined the goal-scoring playoff frenzy with Shea Weber and Joel Ward also scoring three goals during the 1st round series.
So, as the playoffs have appeared to be an entirely different animal for the Predators, in assessing which team gets the advantage goes to…
Advantage: Canucks
Defense:
Much like their offense, the Canucks possess a very stingy, very gritty defense and also lead the NHL with the fewest goals allowed/game, only allowing 2.17 goals/game. But beyond their ability to control the pace and tempo of a game with their tight-checking and shot-blocking prowess, the Canucks also do possess a lethal arsenal of offensive defensemen, lead by Christian Ehrhoff who registered 50 points, along with Alexander Edler with 33 points and Dan Hamhuis and Kevin Bieksa who also contributed offensively. However, as these are the Stanley Cup playoffs, Vancouver’s usually stout defense took a major hit during Games 4-6 of their 1st round playoff series against the Blackhawks, having given up 16 goals during that 3-game span.
The Predators were right behind the Canucks in the same category of GAA/game, having given up a stingy 2.28 goals/game. As mentioned above, the Predators defensive corps is traditionally prolific on the offensive end of overall team scoring, led by Shea Weber, who is emerging as perhaps the next great NHL defenseman of his generation. Ryan Suter lead the Preds with 35 assists during the regular season, combining with Weber to form on of the top first defensive pairings in the NHL. While the Preds gave up more than a goal/game during their series with the Ducks, make no mistake about it, for them to be effective, it will require their defense to clamp down the Canucks terrific offensive contingent.
While it’s tough to split hairs with two such talented defensive units, in assessing to which team the advantage goes…
Advantage: Predators (slight)
Special Teams:
To assess each teams overall special teams play, there is a distinct difference on one side of the special teams: Vancouver’s sizeable advantage while on the Power Play (PP). The Canucks led the NHL in PP Conversion%, with a stealth 24.3 PP conversion rate, whereas the Predators finished 26th, struggling with a 15.2% conversion rate. However, in the 1st round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, both teams converted power plays at the identical 22.2% rate. So perhaps the Canucks might not possess the stark advantage during the playoffs.
Regarding the Penalty Kill, while the Canucks – finally! – didn’tactually lead the NHL in a team category – who IS their special team’scoach, anyway? – they did rank 3rd in the NHL in this category. The Predators were right behind the Canucks in the overall PK regular season rankings, having killed off 84.9% of their opponents PP opportunities, versus the Canucks nearly identical 85.6% PK rate. Surprisingly however, the Preds struggled mightily against the Ducks, killing penalties at a putrid 63.6% PK rate. It should be noted, however, that Teemu Selanne was the primary reason, notching four of his six goals via the PP. Although their struggles might have been an aberration, the Preds will have to return to their usual stout Penalty Killing ways to withstand the prolific firepower of the Canucks’ Power Play.
So, when assessing the overall advantage in Special Teams…
Advantage: Canucks
Goaltending:
If based on the regular season and, in fact, the first three games of their playoff series against the Blackhawks, this comparison would be too close to call. However, starting netminder Roberto Luongo struggled horribly during two of the last four games against the Blackhawks. In fact, Luongo was pulled from Games 4 and 5 and was replaced by backup Cory Schneider who in fact started Game 6, only to be replaced by Luongo due to an injury suffered on a shootout goal by Michael Frolik. Prior to that, Luongo posted a stellar Goals Against Average (GAA) of 2.11 and an equally impressive Save Percentage of .930. However, keep an eye on Luongo, should he struggle once again, as head coach Alain Vigneault won’t hesitate to place Cory Schneider in goal.
The Predators goaltending duties are manned by Pekka Rinne, who posted a nearly identical GAA of 2.12 and an identical Save% of .930. And while Rinne also struggled during the playoff series against the Ducks, he is a reliable netminder and the Preds’ workhorse, so there’s little chance Head Coach Barry Trotz would pull Rinne should he struggle.
However, when assessing each team’s goaltending units, this one’s a tough call…
Advantage: Push
X-Factor:
In viewing the categories already analyzed, at least during the regular season, this playoff series would appear to be a “no contest” situation, thus allowing the Canucks to waltz into the Conference Finals and possibly allowing the pundits to gloat as to who should raise Lord Stanley’s Cup. Well, the game is not played on paper and both the regular season’s results and any home ice advantage counts the least in the Stanley Cup playoffs
The Predators are a particularly tough team when playing at home in the Bridgestone Arena, with a raucous supporting fan base, one particularly inspired by their long overdue 1st Round series victory. And, if they can continue their prolific playoff scoring clip, it could allow some uncertainty to creep into the Canucks collective psyche.
Advantage: Push
Prediction:
While the Canucks breathed a sigh of relief at one of the most potentially embarrassing meltdowns in Stanley Cup playoff history, they did survive their opening-round series against their arch nemesis, the Chicago Blackhawks. And while the Predators equally survived their tough opening-round series against the Ducks, the expectations are much higher for the Canucks to make it to the Stanley Cup finals, and perhaps to win the Cup. But this is a gritty, tough Nashville team so they have nothing to lose nor are intimidated by the Canucks.
Given all those variables, here’s the guess:
Canucks in Six Games