The Michael Vick Experience was one of the hottest rides in town years ago. It was something no one had ever seen, but then, just like that, it was shut down.
Last year, you were given a free ticket to the ride’s reopening. There was a lot of risk involved, considering it had been a while since it was up and running, but the reward outweighed the risk. After all, you paid nothing.
Though it was not without faults, the Vick Experience 2.0 did not disappoint. You got a Disney World-like ride for the price of a merry-go-round. However, the ride is no longer the bargain it once was. If you want to hop on again in 2011, it will cost you.
As if you weren’t already, you are now caught up with Michael Vick’s resurgence, thanks to my use of a long drawn-out analogy. Now, just how much will Vick’s immense ceiling cost you?
If you are a riverboat gambler, a case could certainly be made for Vick to be the first overall pick, although I would kindly, yet very strongly, disagree with you. As a matter of fact, I wouldn’t even touch Vick in the first round of a fantasy draft, which is where he will go in nearly every draft this summer.
With your first pick you have the ability to pick the guy you think has the highest upside with the least amount of downside. When healthy, nobody has a higher ceiling than Vick. However, his downside is also paralleled by no other player. Vick has played all 16 games only once in his eight-year career. No other first round pick is at a higher risk of being carted off the field on any given week than Vick.
Why not just pair Vick with a solid backup QB? Even 12 games of Vick, plus four games of a fill-in is better than any one QB, right? Well, kind of….
If you were able to hit on a solid backup QB, which is a lot harder than it may seem (i.e. who’s going to have a better year: Eli Manning, Joe Flacco or Jay Cutler? Good luck), that theory could work. However, while Vick and your fill-in may combine for more total points than any single player, it does not make your team “better.” Sorry, but I would rather not have Eli Manning leading my fantasy team when the championship is on the line. Total points are great, but timeliness of those points is what matters.
Maybe you concede that Vick will get hurt at some point during the season, but just like last year, he will be back for the fantasy playoff run. Let’s say you’re right.
I’m still not sold.
Towards the second half of last season, defenses began to game plan against the scrambling QB. Contrary to years past, teams blitzed to get to Vick, and it worked. When extra defenders were sent, Vick was sacked a league-high 19 times (34 total). The pressure led to a decline in Vick’s efficiency as a passer as well. During the first six weeks, he owned an impressive 11:0 touchdown to interception ratio. However, during the last five weeks of the season, that number dropped to a pedestrian 11:7 touchdown ratio.
I’m warning you, step out of line and wait for a different ride.
Draft a stud RB in the first round and follow it up with a safer QB a round later (i.e. Peyton Manning). You’ll be glad you did when the guy who drafted Vick in the first round is starting Mike Kafka by Week 6.
Justin Mertes-Mistretta is an intern at RotoWire.com and is a fantasy football writer for The Sports Bank. Check out his podcasts here and make sure to follow him @MertesMist_TSB.