Since starting the season at AAA Iowa following an extended bereavement absence, Chicago Cubs’ prospect 2B/SS Javier Baez is exhibiting a more patient and cerebral batting approach that augurs well for his future. This improvement is a welcome development following a disastrous late-season stint with the Cubs.
Baez’s plate impatience, violent swing and refusal to make situational adjustments were spectacularly exposed in 229 plate appearances last season. He batted .169, had a way-below-average WRC+ (weighted runs created adjusted for ballpark, era and league effects) of 51 and an anemic OPS of .551.
Further, he had the highest strikeout rate, an alarming 41.5%, among the 335 players who made a minimum of 220 plate appearances.
The Cubs should exercise extreme patience in allowing Baez, still only 22, to regain his bearings in the minor leagues even if such a decision sacrifices short term team success. Top prospect promotions should only advance the club’s objective of sustained excellence, not satiating the faction of Cubs fans who burden the team’s current management with a 105-season championship drought.
Baez is hitting .311 with four homers, five doubles and 17 RBI since debuting with Iowa on April 30.
In 434 plate appearances at Iowa last season, the right-handed slugger averaged .260 with 23 homers, 24 doubles and 80 RBI. Baez has improved in all offensive metrics, including slugging percentage (.510 to .552); strikeout rate (30.0% to 24.3%); walk rate (7.8% to 8.7%); WRC+ (108 to 145); and OPS (.833 to .911).
Moreover, he has swiped six bases without being caught after stealing 18 in 24 attempts last year.
The knee jerk reaction would be to recall Javier Baez to immediately bolster a Cubs’ team that is presently is in the postseason hunt. In our estimation that would be a mistake which could backfire and thwart Baez’s development and, ultimately, detract from the Cubs’ vision.
It is axiomatic that Baez must receive regular playing time. Starlin Castro is entrenched as the Cubs’ everyday shortstop, and potential superstar Addison Russell, who was promoted from Iowa on April 21, has been starting almost daily at second base.
True, Russell’s overall numbers are mediocre. In 123 plate appearances, he is hitting .252 with three homers, 11 doubles and 13 RBI. His WRC+ of 97 and OPS of .727 rank in the middle of the pack among major league second basemen with a minimum of 120 plate appearances.
However, he made highlight-reel diving plays on groundballs up the middle on Monday and Tuesday night, and drilled two doubles, including a walk off game winner, among three hits in Tuesday’s win against the Washington Nationals. There is no justification to hasten Baez’s promotion to replace Russell based on the latter’s performance to date.
But what if Russell falls victim to a tailspin these next few weeks?
The Cubs should still resist any temptation to recall Javier Baez.
The Cubs traded for second baseman Tommy La Stella from the Atlanta Braves last offseason, presumably to serve as a stopgap while Russell and Baez continued honing their skills in the minors and then as a reserve or trade bait once the infield picture was more settled.
It was a visit to the disabled list by La Stella because of an injured rib that necessitated Russell’s promotion. Unfortunately, La Stella injured an oblique muscle last week during a rehabilitation stint, delaying his return for about three more weeks.
La Stella appeared in 93 games for the Braves as a rookie last season. He batted just .251 with one homer, 16 doubles, 31 RBI and a meager .644 OPS. Nevertheless, La Stella, who is an excellent contact hitter and only 26 years of age, can be a buffer should Russell backslide. If Russell does not regress, La Stella could morph into a reserve role or even be demoted to the minor leagues.
One final reason the Cubs should resist all temptation to promote Baez before major league rosters expand in September is his defense. Baez has already committed nine errors in 23 games.
Long term the Cubs have difficult but enviable decisions to make about the infield. Castro’s slugging percentage of .335 and OPS of .629 would be career lows and likely have chipped away at his trade value that the Cubs had probably hoped could fetch more starting pitching. If Castro is ultimately dealt during the offseason–and an offensive resurgence would probably be necessary for the Cubs to receive a frontline pitcher–Russell and Baez could form the Cubs’ best young middle infield since HOF 2B Ryne Sandberg and SS Shawon Dunston were in their salad days.
One other alternative is for Baez, though he has only a smattering of appearances at third base, to be moved to the hot corner and Cubs’ phenom Kris Bryant to left field in order to accommodate Castro.
Those are decisions for the future. At present, the Cubs must keep Javier Baez at AAA for the balance of Iowa’s season to allow his refined approach to become natural in a less pressure-packed environment than Chicago.