Man Utd is the most popular sports team in the word. 660,000,000 million fans; according to the latest surveys. That’s the number quoted in the surveys discussed by Manchester United icon and official team Ambassador “Captain Marvel” Bryan Robson. They are the biggest of brands when it comes to sports franchises. They have a billion dollar (that’s billion with a “B”) apparel deal with Nike. Man Utd is the only sports franchise that is publicly traded.
Their Facebook page has over 43,000,000 million likes. However, the transition from Sir Alex Ferguson to David Moyes has been disastrous. The team has performed well below expectations. How has Moyes, and all the losing hurt Man Utd?
Joshua Raymond, Chief Market Strategist with City Index is here to help break it down:
“Man Utd winning the champions league game against Olympiacos has changed it a tad but essentially the story is their inability to get into the Champions League next year, and the instability of David Moyes as manager,” Raymond said.
Since the day David Moyes took over, shares of ManU have dropped 13%. And there’s no reason to be bullish on their future. Only bearish. Said Raymond:
“Interestingly, their shares have just seen their highest ever recorded short interest, meaning that the amount of people betting on their shares will fall is now at all time high levels. Net short interest is now at just short of 3m shares, which is 1.8% of the shares outstanding. As a percentage of the floated shares, its 17.8% are of short interest. So clearly investors and traders are expecting bad things…”
And the reverse bandwagon is in effect too. Fair weather fans are dropping the team. After the loss to arch-nemesis Liverpool, the official Facebook fan page of Man Utd saw 450,000 people “unlike” it, practically overnight.
And of course Moyes is on the hot seat. Scorching hot. Said Raymond:
“This weekend, they face Man City and if they lose that game, there will be even more pressure on Moyes, whilst they have also just been drawn against Bayern Munich in the Champions League, who are the favourites. So the picture is not looking any brighter for them next season.”
“A failure to get into the Champion’s league could cost them dear, not just in lost revenue, but also subsequent commercial deals and they would lose some degree of attractiveness in being able to acquire the players they need at a time when their squad requires major upheaval.”
Munich is the heaviest of favorites, with an 85% chance to win according to Soccer Power Index. Man Utd have just 15%. Also, bookmakers have placed United’s odds at just 18-1. This won’t help in the recruiting of: Toni Kroos, Edinson Cavani, Luke Shaw, Carlos Mane, Ilkay Gundogan, Seamus Coleman, William Carvalho, Fabio Coentrao and all the other players Man Utd is targeting.
Paul M. Banks owns The Sports Bank.net, an affiliate of Fox Sports. An MBA and Fulbright scholar, he’s also a frequent analyst on news talk radio. A former NBC Chicago and Washington Times writer, he’s also been featured on the History Channel. President Barack Obama follows him on Twitter (@paulmbanks)