As the current Premier League season draws to a close, the table offers a snapshot of the status quo. But beneath that surface, something more interesting is brewing. It’s the quiet question fans, analysts, and die-hard fantasy players are starting to ask: Which team is about to take the leap next season?
We’re not talking about incremental improvement — this is about spotting the next real shock. The team that turns a string of good performances into a top-half finish. The team that moves from the defensive to the offensive confrontation with the Premier League’s best. At least one team each season punches above their weight. And if you look in the right places, you can spot them before they blow up.
This isn’t just good for Sunday afternoon television viewers or match-day fans. It’s for anyone who enjoys the tactical side of the game — fantasy football players, long-term odds takers, or placing the smart bet or two. And while this article is about football, this instant wisdom applies to sport in general — tennis betting, for instance, also rewards when someone identifies a up-and-comer before everybody else does.
And then what separates a team that is gradually improving from one that can penetrate?
What Makes a Breakout Team?
A breakout team isn’t necessarily one that wins the title. It’s the club that outperforms expectations in a way that reshapes how they’re viewed — a mid-table side turning into European contenders, or a promoted team making a top-10 charge. What sets them apart is a clear shift: in tactics, mentality, or execution.
Some historic examples help illustrate the point.
Leicester City (2015–16)
The gold standard for shock success. Most fans still remember them as 5000–1 long shots — but look closer, and you’ll see they ended the previous season with real momentum. Ranieri’s squad wasn’t flashy, but it was cohesive, tactically disciplined, and fast on the counter.
Sheffield United (2019–20)
Coming into the league as a newly promoted side, expectations were modest. But under Chris Wilder, the Blades stunned critics with a tactically innovative approach and a strong defensive core. It wasn’t just about effort — they had a system that confused bigger sides.
Brighton & Hove Albion (2022–23)
Years of smart recruitment, patient coaching transitions, and youth development all came together under Roberto De Zerbi. Brighton didn’t just compete — they controlled games, even against top-six opponents.
These stories aren’t one-offs. They’re blueprints.
Signs a Team Is Ready to Break Out
So how do you spot the next Brighton or Brentford before the table catches up? Here’s what to keep an eye on during the off-season and early weeks of the new campaign.
1. A Strong, Recognisable Playing Identity
Teams that break through usually have a style — and they stick to it. Whether it’s a high press, patient buildup, or lightning counters, consistency matters. Coaches like Thomas Frank and Mikel Arteta didn’t just teach systems — they embedded them in every player.
Clues to watch:
– Minimal tactical chopping and changing
– Cohesion across formations and player rotations
– Visible clarity in how the team attacks and defends, especially under pressure
2. Smart, Targeted Recruitment
Breakout teams rarely dominate transfer headlines — but they almost always buy well. It’s about fit over flash. Bringing in a left-back who completes the shape or a second striker who links play better might not set Twitter alight, but it can elevate a team’s level dramatically.
Clues to watch:
– Signings that address very specific weaknesses
– Early deals, showing long-term planning
– Players coming from leagues known for value, like Portugal or Belgium
3. Internal Growth and Real Depth
It’s not just about the starting XI. A team looking to move up the table has to be able to rotate without a drop in performance. When youth players are pushing starters and still delivering when called upon, it’s usually a sign the whole squad is buying in.
Clues to watch:
– Consistent minutes for 20–22-year-olds in meaningful games
– Cup squads that resemble league teams in style and performance
– Resilience through injuries or suspensions without panic
4. Mental Toughness and Small Wins That Matter
Some teams signal their intent not with a huge winning streak, but by taking points off top-four sides or pulling off results in difficult stadiums. It’s about showing that the belief is there — that the squad doesn’t just want to survive but intends to compete.
Clues to watch:
– Close matches against big clubs with tactical maturity
– Celebrations that suggest belief, not relief
– Post-match interviews that talk about ambition, not avoidance
5. Breaking Their Own Patterns
The most compelling signs are when a club changes its own story. A team that usually collapses late in games starts seeing them out. A side known for defensive chaos suddenly concedes far less. That’s when you know something’s shifting.
Clues to watch:
– Big statistical swings: goals conceded, points gained away, xG overperformance
– Winning games they historically lose — London derbies, long away trips
– Multiple players stepping up, not just one standout
What to Track Over the Summer
Off-season moves are key indicators. Even if you’re not glued to every headline, watching a few basics can give you insight into who’s prepping for a leap.
Keep your eye on:
– Clubs with quiet but purposeful transfer windows
– Pre-season performances that show clarity and chemistry, not just results
– Managers entering their second or third full seasons
– Academy players being included in senior training camps
This is where future form starts to take shape.
Look Where Others Aren’t
The best part about spotting a breakout team? It’s about seeing the details others overlook. That mid-table side with a savvy new full-back, a consistent manager, and a striker on the verge of a 15-goal season? That might just be next season’s surprise.
In the Premier League, fortune often favours the observant. By reading between the lines — and trusting your instincts — you might just see the next big story before it happens.
So when pre-season rolls around and predictions start flying, take a second look at the clubs not making headlines. Because sometimes, the biggest rise starts in the quietest summer.
