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Analyzing the Iowa Hawkeyes NCAA Tournament chances

February 16, 2015 By paulmbanks

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Iowa Hawkeyes Coach Fran McCaffery was once again defensive and surly towards the media today. He’s been testy and rude in every press conference since the Adam Woodbury eye-poking story blew up nationally.

It’s not about Woodbury anymore. It’s not about the way McCaffery showed poor media skills as he mishandled the public perception of the situation. Right now, it’s about wins and losses and getting back to the NCAA Tournament.

Today, when a reporter asked McCaffery if he’s frustrated by the overtime loss at Northwestern (RPI 164)/two losses this week, he snapped back with a sarcastic “what do you think?”

Then he abruptly ended the media session.

fran-mccaffery-adam-woodbury

If there are basketball gods, and if those hoops deities are just, then it’s fitting Iowa would fall victim to Chris Collins and Northwestern today; and Adam Woodbury would be 0-5 from the field to boot. NU has had so many painful losses, they were long overdue for a win.

That’s in the past now. Let’s look ahead and assess the Iowa Hawkeyes NCAA Tournament chances. All figures according to RealTimeRPI

BAD LOSSES: just today, it’s the first one. The Minnesota loss (RPI 70) hurts, but it’s not really deadweight.

SIGNATURE WINS: Maryland RPI 14, Ohio State RPI 38 (TWICE), at North Carolina RPI 11. The Iowa Hawkeyes are looking really good here. Although the 15-10, 6-6 in league play record doesn’t exactly sparkle off the standings sheet, UI have more than enough big wins to counter balance any bad losses.

adam-woodbury

RPI: 44

SOS: 17

POTENTIAL FUTURE SIGNATURE WINS: at Indiana (31) 3-3-15, Illinois (47) 2-25-15.

POTENTIAL BAD LOSSES: There are dates with Rutgers, Nebraska and Northwestern remaining.

Iowa Hawkeyes kirk ferentz

PROJECTED FINISH 19-12, 10-8 in conference, according to GAMER. This site projects the Iowa Hawkeyes to finish 3-3 down the stretch. That would definitely be enough to get the Hawks in. They could even take the Big ten Tournament off if they wanted.

Personally, I think they’ll finish 4-2 to complete the year (11-7 in league play). They’re currently in the easy part of their slate now. Don’t expect the Iowa Hawkeyes to stumble terribly to the finish line like last season. It not be another 1-7 in their final eight disaster. With such a robust strength of schedule, Iowa will get in the dance no problem.

OTHER B1G BUBBLE TEAM TOURNEY ANALYSES/POSTSEASON PROJECTIONS:

PURDUE

MICHIGAN STATE

ILLINOIS

Paul M. Banks owns, operates and writes The Sports Bank.net, which is partnered with Fox Sports Digital, eBay, Google News and CBS Interactive Inc. You can read Banks’ feature stories in the Chicago Tribune RedEye newspaper and listen to him on KOZN 1620 The Zone.

Follow him on Twitter (@paulmbanks)

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