On paper, this Illini basketball team appears to be somewhere between mediocre to pretty good; exactly like the music of Taylor Swift. There are two things Swift does better than anybody on Earth though:
1.) never provide closure
2.) espouse shop-worn cliches in every interview
These are the same exact two things that Illini basketball does better than any team in the country.
UPDATE: Our latest bracketology, Illinois is in the “first four out.”
UPDATE: our Big Ten Tournament predictions and preview.
You can credit Fourth Period Columnist and Chicago Now blogger Tab Bamford for the analogy and headline on this one. Also, give him a follow on Twitter (@The1Tab). His tweets are excellent.
During “Late Night with Illini basketball” on Wednesday night, I realized that we will inevitably not have closure on the postseason destination until the evening hours of NCAA Selection Sunday.
So we present to you:
“The top ten reasons Illini basketball will remain on the bubble all week”
Update: here’s what Illinois has to do in the Big Ten Tournament to get in the big dance.
10. Closure won’t happen. As played out and over done as Illini basketball tournament bubble stories are, this narrative isn’t going away any time soon.
Illinois basketball has resided squarely within the NIT/NCAA DMZ for pretty much the entirety of the John Groce era. The “will they or won’t they get in?” song is more over-played than “Shake it off” and “I knew you were trouble” combined. My apologies for subjecting you to yet another one of these types of stories, but we will all have to endure this story line this week.
So you and I will just have to suck it up and move on.
Illinois has spent most of the John Groce era residing squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble; meaning it’s time to realize that John Groce is not an upgrade over Bruce Weber.
9. It’s an expanded and therefore, very diluted field these days
It’s not “the first four” or “the first round.” You can’t have a “round” where 64/68 teams get a bye. This Illini basketball team is mediocre-to-kind-of-good, and they’ll still be mediocre-to-kind-of-good a week from tomorrow; regardless of what bracket they’re placed in. Mediocre teams are getting in to the tourney these days, and equally mediocre teams are also being left out.
By the way, if you thought I was joking about the platitudes thing, on Wednesday night Groce worked in these six coachspeak phrases below into a response that took just 40 seconds. Groce took the art of press conference platitude to a Picasso “Guernica” level. What an amazing tautology-per-sentence-spoken ratio.
-“We’re not where we want to be yet”
-“What Nnanna said, it’s true. We talk about how it’s a 40 minute game”
-“You play through things.”
-“Next man up.”
-“Our Culture, our fabric we have no excuses here.”
-“We stay poised, and got to stay focused.”
8. See Wednesday night; or the home wins over Michigan and Penn State. Or the Bragging Rights game.
The Illini finished 14-2 at home, 7-2 in conference. On paper that looks really good. However, games aren’t won on paper, and this team has some really ugly wins this year; the four listed above come to mind first. They can’t close. They let really bad teams hang around and take leads on them. They blow big leads in very winnable games. Closure is not this team’s thing.
7. The metrics and numbers are a wash: An RPI of 59, SoS 56, 3-6 record versus RPI top 50, KenPom of 53 has NIT written all over it.
End of discussion, right?…no wait…
6…..they’re also second nationally in top 10 RPI wins with 2.
Illinois has two victories over the RPI top 10, defeating No. 9 Baylor and No. 10 Maryland. The Illini rank second nationally for RPI top-10 wins, tied with Duke, Kansas and Kansas State. Oklahoma State leads with three. So although this team doesn’t pass the proverbial “eye test,” there are some stats they can hang their hat on.
5. Illinois’ nine Big Ten wins are its most in four years, since going 9-9 in conference play in 2011.
Yes, it’s progress, correct?
No, not really, as the league in general is very mediocre. Sorry, even this aspect isn’t very clear. To say that Illinois isn’t improving, at least in conference play, is to disrespect their body of work this season. However, to consider it legitimate improvement (just because they’re finally not below .500) is to be intellectually dishonest.
4. Indiana losing at home to Michigan State helps, but it’s still going to require two Big Ten Tournament wins at minimum to get in.
Illini basketball fans need to root against IU, Purdue, also BYU and…well, they need to get their own house in order. One conference tournament win is not enough. Two is required at minimum; three would punch their ticket for certain. Since the second win would now have to come over Wisconsin (a very nice signature win that would be), two wins would then be enough.
3. The Michigan State home loss was really pivotal in defining the season
The win at Michigan State (RPI 29) helps out the resume a lot, but it’s negated by that loss at Nebraska (RPI 130). Losing the home contest with Michigan State really stings. Had Illinois taken care of business that evening; this discussion is probably over and they’re in.
2. The program has no history in regards to pulling off NCAA Tournament upsets
It’s hard to get too high or too low about whether Illinois goes dancing or not when you take a step back and think about this fact:
How come the single trait that we love the most about March Madness (the cinderellas), doesn’t seem to apply to Illinois? (The Illini only have two NCAA Tournament “upsets” in program history, 2004, as a #5 over #4 Cincinnati and 2011 as a #9 over #8 UNLV)
1. Do you really believe this team can make it to the second weekend of March Madness?
Again, as you ride the emotional roller coaster of conference tournament week, and look forward to the brackets being released, take a break, inhale, exhale, and ask yourself a bigger picture question:
Do you honestly believe this Illini basketball team can get to the Sweet Sixteen? It hasn’t happened since the Final Four run of 2005. It’s literally been a decade now.
Paul M. Banks owns, operates and writes The Sports Bank.net, which is partnered with Fox Sports Digital, eBay, Google News and CBS Interactive Inc.
You can read Banks’ feature stories in the Chicago Tribune RedEye newspaper and listen to him on KOZN 1620 The Zone.
Follow him on Twitter (@paulmbanks)