(Update: Josh Whitman announces that Groce will return)
The Illini basketball community is very fractured right now, a sad consequence of deep, sustained losing. The main wedge within Illini nation regards the future of Illini basketball Head Coach John Groce. The grounds for dismissal are overwhelmingly present, yet he still retains some support.
Early reports indicate that newly minted A.D. Josh Whitman will retain Groce at the end of season, but those reports are questionable given the logic upon which they are based.
These reports claim Groce is safe just because he has a three year deal and the University buy him out because of that. Groce very well could be retained, (if I had to wager right now, I’d even say he will be back) but it won’t be simply because of financial restrictions. We had an exclusive with Whitman just last week and he very plainly stated that money is currently no object towards any initiatives that he wants to take.
You can listen to the Whitman podcast here at this link with the “money” discussion beginning at the 2:56 mark.
The question here isn’t “Can the Illini buy John Groce Out next month?” because they unquestionably have the means to do so.
His buyout is reportedly the base salary times times two times years left on his deal as he’s signed until 2018-19.
That’s $400,00 per season times two= $800,000 times years remaining, three = $2.4 million.
Bruce Weber’s buyout was $3.9 million and when you combine the Weber buyout with those of Ron Zook and Jolette Law, the sum jumps up to $7.1 million.
Mike Thomas’ buyout was $2.5 million.
Tim Beckman received no severance package as he was terminated with cause severe enough that he cannot receive his buyout, although he still might pursue acquiring that money through the legal system.
Obviously, the University isn’t interested in piling up even more sunk costs, but $2.4 mil is not really all that much when you look at the big picture. Especially when juxtaposed against the $9.6 million the school has already spent in proverbial “throwing good money after bad.”
Like Whitman said in our interview however, the DIA is fiscally healthy in spite of all the expenditures. The University, and the athletic department is insulated from the state’s current financial crisis.
It’s not “can” they buy Groce out, the question is “will” and “should” they?
You can debate this until you’re blue (and orange) in the face, but at the end of the day, only Whitman’s opinion truly matters.
The John Groce Injury Issue
I would love to hear a solid argument for retaining Groce that is something beyond “well, injuries.” Yes, seven players have combined to miss 74 games, but that argument is still extremely weak because
1.) Groce has had time to adjust to the injuries
2.) Many of the injuries are to players who weren’t even supposed to be here begin with
3.) Other teams in the league are thriving despite suffering severe injuries too.
4.) The program’s complete meltdown started well ahead of the injuries, as you recall how well March of 2015 went.
“Injuries” is an especially weak sauce argument when you look at how other Big Ten teams have performed in spite of severe injury losses. Indiana is leading the Big Ten, and they’ve been without one of their best players all year long in James Blackmon Jr. Michigan State has the best NCAA Tournament resume of any league team and they were without their best player, Denzel Valentine for four games. (Or two less games than Kendrick Nunn has been missing.
Michigan has a tournament bubble resume despite missing their best player, Caris LeVert, for 14 games.
Northwestern is not having a very special or extremely compelling season by any stretch yet they’re still in striking distance of the school record for single season wins. This despite playing the whole year without Vic Law, the highest rated recruit in school history. They also missed their best player, Alex Olah for six games.
If these other teams can figure out how to solider on after injury, why can’t John Groce? Yes, Illinois has been ravaged by injuries, but by the time you get to February so has everyone else.
The John Groce Record
Do we even need to go here? It’s currently the program’s worst season since the mid 1970s. Barring a miracle, million-to-one shot Big Ten Tournament title, Illinois will miss the NCAA Tournament for the third straight year. That hasn’t happened since the late 1978-80. Groce will miss the tourney in three out of four years on the job. Look at his 28-40 Big Ten record. This part of “the debate” is not debatable.
The school fired Weber who was nowhere near as bad as this.
The John Groce Regime Off the Court Issues
Leron Black pleaded not guilty to the allegations that he threatened a bouncer with a knife. The state’s felony case against him is very strong. Black is the second highest rated recruit of the Groce era, but you can safely assume he won’t be returning next season. See Darius Paul and Aaron Cosby, for precedent.
Black would be the third guy to get into major trouble and then subsequently see his Illini basketball career end due to it.
Don’t forget Rayvonte Rice was suspended last year too.
Of course, there were major off the court issues under Weber too, but he paid for that with his job. Will Groce be held to the same standard? Credit the current Illini leader for this though- he’s a hard-line leader who doesn’t tolerate such insolence. Players who act up are disciplined accordingly.
However, it’s still on him to try to 1.) do a better job recruiting higher character guys or 2.) try harder to prevent such malfeasance.
The John Groce Recruiting/Player Development Resume
Groce has landed some good if not elite recruits, but just as often he hasn’t developed them. Pointing out all his whiffs with 5-stars is low-hanging fruit as he’s tried to build something with 3-stars and a couple 4-stars once in awhile. Again though his poor record and lone NCAA Tournament appearance, victory says it all. He also accomplished that with Weber’s roster, not his.
Groce supporters claim that great recruits are on the way for 2017. Even if that’s true, it’s too little, too late when
1.) your 2016 recruiting class is one whole guy
2.) the program has seen a steady decline in wins each of the four years John Groce has been on the job.
Can you trust Groce to develop any great prospects who would be on the way?
Nothing he’s done gives you the confidence that he will. Of course, nothing he did at Ohio in the MAC made him qualified for this job to begin with. Although to his credit, Groce erased those doubts with a very successful debut season.
The Verdict
The media cannot sack John Groce, nor can they extend his deal. Many in the media are calling for Groce’s head already, and if you think that’s an awful thing for a writer to do, consider this- Groce would be paid $1.2 million not to work. Show me one media member who gets a deal like that!
What we write or don’t write is totally irrelevant, as it’s all up to Whitman. He needs to step up to the plate here and make the right call. Whitman is a lawyer, so he’ll weigh up all the evidence, evaluate the case and then render his own verdict.
Whitman needs to differentiate himself from Interim A.D. Paul Kowalczyk who kicked the can down the road/took the path of least resistance with Bill Cubit.
He also needs to distinguish himself from his predecessor Mike Thomas, who was a complete failure in both revenue sport head c0aching hires. When Whitman was hired, the news brought a new “era of good feelings” to the Illini community.
It was short lived with the Leron Black news the very next day.
Whitman can again generate good vibes once the Illini season is over (we’ve pretty much all wanted this season over since January, as hardly anyone is paying attention anymore). He needs to make the tough, but right choice regarding John Groce.
Paul M. Banks runs The Sports Bank.net, partnered with FOX Sports Engage Network. and News Now. Banks, a former writer for the Washington Times, currently contributes regularly to the Chicago Tribune’s RedEye publication and Bold Global.
He also consistently appears on numerous talk shows all across the country. Follow him on Twitter and Instagram