You’ve heard the news: Rayvonte Rice is out indefinitely. Some reports say 3-6 weeks. Either way it’s enough to relegate this Illini basketball team to the NIT (or worse) for certain this year. And we’ve outlined below, Illinois NCAA Tournament at-large berth chances were very far-fetched, even with Rice, to begin with.
So, if you’re heading to Assembly Hall to watch the #9 Maryland Terrapins versus an Illini basketball team without it’s best player what will you be seeing?
(And much respect to you if you’re going because local weather forecasts an air temperature of -7, with wind chills of -25 at tip-off time)
You’ll be seeing the Malcolm Hill and Kendrick Nunn show. You’ll see John Groce give more playing time to the younger guys. It’s a shift toward the future of Illini basketball. We’ll come back to this.
First, let’s look at the ol’ NCAA Tournament resume as it stands now.
According to Real Time RPI.com, Illinois has a current RPI of 69 and a SOS of 80 To be considered safely off the bubble on Selection Sunday, a team typically needs a RPI in the 30s or higher. (Low to mid 40s at worst, and only for rare exceptions)
With a very “meh” Illini basketball non-conference resume, 11-7 or better will be required in league play. Given how bad the non-conference season was for everybody in the Big Ten, they might need 11-7, plus a win in the Big Ten Tournament to go dancing. Of course, at this point of Rayvonte Ricelessness, it’s win the Big Ten Tournament or bust time.
Quality Wins: Baylor (RPI 23), the next “best” win after that is American (RPI 87) That’s bad news!
Bad losses: Oregon (RPI 102), Michigan (RPI 136) and that Miami loss is looking worse as well (RPI 93)
Now here’s the tricky part:
You might think, at first glance that the league schedule is easy/favorable for Illinois; but that actually works against this team. The 2014-15 Illini basketball squad is in dire NEED of signature wins. They also cannot afford more bad RPI losses.
Potential quality wins: Maryland (RPI 15), Feb 15th @ Wisconsin (RPI 8) Illinois lost by 25 at the Kohl Center last year. They lost by 22 in that same building the year before. I watched both of those horrifying experiences and I can tell you that both blowouts were way more lopsided than those final margins indicate.
Illini basketball needs to sweep Maryland and Penn State, and beat somebody of quality in the conference tournament because no one in their right mind believes that John Groce will win at the Kohl Center next month.
Potential bad losses: Jan 11th @Nebraska (RPI 125), Jan 14th @Northwestern (RPI 106…you recall what happened at Welsh-Ryan Arena last year), Jan 21st Purdue (RPI 127), Feb 3rd Rutgers (RPI 95), Feb 12th Michigan (RPI 128), Feb 28th Northwestern (RPI 106), March 4th Nebraska (RPI 125) March 7th @Purdue (RPI 127) So that’s 8 games that Illini basketball must win at all costs.
Even Steven: Beating Maryland gives Illinois two quality wins to go against three really bad losses. Looking ahead, you see the eight games left on the schedule that could sink the Illini basketball tournament resume. This team cannot afford any more losses to teams with 100+ RPI, but the chances are very likely that it’s going to happen, at least twice, if not more.
The January Effect: At Illinois, John Groce is undefeated in November. In December, he’s 20-6. In January Groce is ……uhmmm…..well….how I do break the news?……he’s 3-13. If trends continue in January of this year, we’ll have to look at running the table in the Big Ten Tournament to get the automatic bid.
In other words, we are likely headed towards yet another season of Illini basketball irrelevance. If John Groce finishes his third season at Illinois having accomplished just one tournament appearance, it means his fourth season will see the temperature on his seat begin to rise a little.
Groce has accomplished a lot with reeling in a recruiting class ranked #14 by ESPNU and #16 by Rivals for next year. Most importantly, he’s re-opened the pipeline to Chicago; something Bruce Weber could not.
(But hey, Weber had that Peoria pipeline “locked down.”) Although this is a senior dominated team, getting Darius Paul and Tracy Abrams back gives 2015-16 Illini basketball some experience to complement Nunn and Hill, who will be juniors. Plus the incoming freshmen, who will be exciting, but again, don’t pin your hopes on freshmen. At any school, at any time.
The last time Illini basketball finished a season with a national ranking was 2006. They haven’t reached the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament since the Title game year of 2005. (Yes, it’s been a decade already) It’s time for the program to finally become nationally relevant again. That doesn’t appear to be in the cards this March.
Paul M. Banks owns, operates and writes The Sports Bank.net ,which is partners with Fox Sports. Read his feature stories in the Chicago Tribune RedEye edition. Listen to him on KOZN 1620 The Zone. Follow him on Twitter (@paulmbanks). His work has been featured in hundreds of media outlets including The Washington Post and ESPN 2