As it currently stands, Illinois is a “next four out” of the NCAA Tournament kind of team. That means a win or two puts them in “first four out” territory. A small winning streak would get them off the NIT bubble. No small task given that the team’s best player, Rayvonte Rice, is out for a few weeks.
The “Ewing Theory” manifested itself in a huge signature win over a very good Maryland team ten days ago.
However, that momentum didn’t last and now Illini basketball is in some trouble this season.
The good news is that the cake part of the schedule is coming up.
First, you have Purdue, RPI 101 at home tonight. Then a visit to Minnesota (103) where Illini basketball seems to always win, no matter how the given season is going. That’s anything but guaranteed, as the Gophers are much more talented than their 1-5 record conference conveys.
Also, road team Illini basketball has simply been brutal.
Still, I like the Illini chances at the barn, regardless. Home dates versus Rutgers and Penn State are next on the docket, then a home date against Michigan. Remember, they have Michigan on the ropes the first time, until the
“OMG IT’S JIM HARBAUGH! HE’S SO AWESOME! JIM HARBAUGH IS HERE TO DOMINATE THE WORLD MOMENT”
That takes us to mid February; around the time that Rice could possibly be preparing for an upcoming return.
This Illini basketball bunch has enough remaining talent, and a schedule on the favorable side, to tread water until Rice returns.
How will they do it?
It starts with Malcolm Hill, he’s the under-study Illini basketball alpha dog while Rice convalesces. He’ll likely get his almost every night. It starts with Hill, but then the load must be carried by a trio of Chicagoans:
former Simeon teammates Kendrick Nunn and Jaylon Tate; and the Oregon State transfer Ahmad Starks.
Nunn played with Jabari Parker in high school, so he’s used to being more second banana than alpha dog. That’s ok, because Hill is the go-to guy right now, but Nunn has also been the main man in a couple games so far. Nunn has shown the capability to be the primary option when the situation calls for it.
“Kendrick is capable of being a real good scorer, that’s what he’s been his whole career, and that’s what he did tonight,” said Tate after the Northwestern game.
Tate has to take over the game as a distributor and defender. He is not a scorer. He’s certainly not a shooter. Nevertheless, he is the best true point guard option on the roster. John Groce made him the starting point guard, and he was wise to do so.
Also, the continuity and familiarity of Nunn and Tate works well on this Illini basketball team; as they were teammates in high school.
“It helps, we do everything together, we have good chemistry on and off the court, said Tate.
“We push each other a lot, getting in the gym, getting our extra shots, and ball handling in.”
Starks is really not a true point. Both transfers have disappointed, but at least Starks can make some shots sometimes. He does contribute once in awhile. Cosby, on the other hand, just brings the team down.
Defensively, he can play, but offensively he makes the team worse.
He is dead weight to the offense because his shooting percentage is so poor. He had a good first half, maybe good first 15 minutes versus Northwestern..
However, he did not have a “break out game” in Evanston. Don’t believe such lazy narratives. He entered that contest with the second worst field goal percentage of any player in the nation (351 teams) who took enough shots to qualify.
Then he went 4-7 from three in one half at Welsh-Ryan.
Cosby followed that up by going 0-5 from the field, 0 points versus Indiana.
SHUT OUT; versus a Hoosiers team that isn’t stellar on defense. Then you have Nnanna Egwu, who also drew a goose egg in that home contest. However, he only took one shot as he was in foul trouble the whole time.
When you consider how big Egwu is, and how small Indiana is, this is just completely unacceptable.
We know Egwu isn’t in the starting lineup for offense.
He’s a senior, and we know what he is and what he can do. However, a doughnut in Big Ten play is never acceptable for a senior with multiple years of starting experience. It’s not an isolated occurrence either.
Egwu got shut out of not one, but two games last season.
Egwu has to start, and play major minutes though because there’s no one else up front.
This team is very small. It’s an Illini basketball team that will be very reliant on Nunn, Tate and Starks for the next few weeks. Given Rice’s absence, and the deficiencies in Egwu and Cosby’s games, that’s the way it’s got to be.
Paul M. Banks owns, operates and writes The Sports Bank.net, which is partnered with Fox Sports Digital, eBay, Google News and CBS Interactive.
You can read Banks’ feature stories in the Chicago Tribune RedEye newspaper and listen to him on KOZN 1620 The Zone. Follow him on Twitter (@paulmbanks)