Take It To The Bank!! Week 3, NFL Picks!

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By Paul Schmidt

Welcome back to the most exciting part of the weekend!  Actually, I wrote these earlier, and I thought I posted it.  But I didn’t.  Everyone come see how smart I am!!

Last week was a GREAT week…4-0 for the week!  I was due to pick something right eventually, right? 

In all seriousness, I do hope that the last couple of weeks, that you got out and made a little money yourself, because these first couple of weeks of the NFL season are typically the easiest to work with.  The books don’t REALLY have a feel for the teams yet, and that provides all of us with opportunities!

Of course that means that this week there will be LESS opportunity right?  That this week, the powers that be will be getting a handle on things?

Well, not so fast, my friends (channelling my inner Lee Corso!)…This week’s lines present a whole lot of opportunity, which is somewhat surprising.  Usually, when a line looks too good to be true, it probably is and should be sending off gambling alarms that yell, “Danger!  Danger!” in your head.

But this week…maybe we’re getting just one more week of value before the other foot drops.  As always, these are lines from the Harrah’s Casinos in Las Vegas.

Chicago -2.5 at Seattle
Ladies and gentlemen, the Seneca Wallace era!  Look, I don’t typically advocate wagering on the team you pull for, but any time you have a chance to bet against Seneca Wallace, even at home Qwest Field where the Seahawks have an insane home field advantage, you have to do it.
Pick: Chicago -2.5 

Tennessee +2 at New York Jets
I’mabigfan of the Titans.  They’re typically my go-to team after the Bears go away for the season, mainly because…I like the uniforms.  Yes, I’m a woman.

But the greater force at work here is that this is a better football team than we’ve seen this season.  Their defense is better than this (though not as good as last season, it should be mentioned).  Their offense is, as we saw last week, extremely capable.  And this is absolutely a must-win game for them.  This should be an outright win for the Titans.
Pick: Tennessee +2

San Francisco at Minnesota -6.5
I’ve seen this line as high as 7 points, which seems odd for a team that is playing as well as the 49ers are.  The Niners defense has been outstanding, and the offense in the hands of Shaun King has been far better than anticipated.

Meanwhile, Minnesota has not been tested yet, playing two of the worst teams in the NFL in the first two weeks of the season (Lions and Browns) and we still don’t really know what Brett Favre is going to do against a legitimate NFL offense.  This week we get to find out.  And herein is my upset special of the week.  Go nuts on the Niners, bet that money line!!
Pick: San Francisco +6.5

New Orleans at Buffalo +6
The #1 gambling rule of the 2009-2010 NFL season stays in effect:  Do not ever, ever bet against Drew Brees.  In fact, if you’re not wagering on him, you’re missing out. 

I’m not impressed with Buffalo’s defense at all — it’s at least on par with New Orleans’. And therein lies the rub – No one’s offense is as good as the Saints’ and Buffalo is going to be forced to play catch up this week.  The only hope for the Bills is that Fred Jackson goes off early and often, and even if he does, it may not be enough.
Pick: New Orleans -6

Last Week: 4-0
Overall: 6-2

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