Take It To The Bank! Week 7 NFL!

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By Paul Schmidt

So, let’s forget what happened last week.  That’s right, we’ll just forget it.  0-4?  Oh and Four????  What????  Three of my picks outright lost, and the fourth, Jacksonville, barely snuck out a win.  EPIC FAIL.

On the plus side, I’m still over .500, and that’s a good thing…

On to this week’s picks, with lines courtesy of Harrah’s casinos in Las Vegas…

Indianapolis (-14) at St. Louis
The Rams proved they could be frisky last week.  Don’t look for that to continue this week. Pick: Indy -14

Chicago (PICK) at Cincinnati
I don’t put a lot of stock in Ced Benson as a premier NFL running back, but I do believe that a lot of the Bears want to smack him in the mouth this week.  Also, this is a pretty good value pick here, as Cincy’s secondary isn’t all that good, and Cutler should be able to pick this team apart. Pick: Chicago (PK)

Green Bay (-9) at Cleveland
I don’t particularly like this Packers’ offensive line.  I don’t know that Cleveland can necessarily take advantage of that, but if they can contain Ryan Grant even a little today, I think that Derek Anderson can keep this team in the game. Pick: Cleveland +9

Philadelphia (-7) at Washington
Well, let’s sum up Washington: They’re starting Jason Campbell again this week after benching him last week, playcalling on offense has been taken away from Jim Zorn by the team’s owner, everyone on the team has the flu, and then there’s that awful chlamydia outbreak. 

And here’s the kicker: Only ONE of those things isn’t true…I’ll lay the points, please! Pick: Philly -7

Last week: 0-4
Season Record: 13-11

Take It To The Bank, Week 6 NFL!

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By Paul Schmidt

The first five weeks of the NFL season…I won’t say they have been a gambler’s paradise, but I will say that Vegas has been taking a bath. The biggest reason is how bad some of these NFL teams are.

To wit: Jacksonville is one of the worst teams in the NFL this season. Last week, they got blown out on the road, 44-0.  This week, they come home, and they are favored by 9.5 points at home against the Rams. 

This is a Jaguars team that might win only 5 games this year, and they could be picking around 8th, 9th or 10th.  That many teams are worse than them, and might win less than 5 games.

That’s just the kind of season it is in the NFL this season: Just a ton of terrible, terrible teams means that there will be a ton of teams winning a lot of games.  Sort of a haves-and-have-nots situation.

That’s led to a situation where the Vegas just can’t make the lines high enough to keep people from betting on the favorites. That’s how you have a situation where awful Jacksonville is laying 9.5 points at home against the putrid Rams…

My point?  Let’s be careful out there this week.

St. Louis (+9.5) at Jacksonville
And yes, given all of that…the Rams still are really, really bad. Really bad.  Pick: Jacksonville -9.5

Baltimore (+3) at Minnesota
Thoroughly enjoying the Brett Favre experience (vomit). Being able to gamble on him and win is great (gag).  I can’t wait to do it again this week (barf). I hope Ray Lewis hits him so hard his legs fall off and he can’t play football again. Pick: Minnesota -3

Philadelphia (-14.5) at Oakland
One of these times these big underdogs is gonna finally get enough points that they can cover…I just don’t think it’s Oakland this week. Pick: Philadelphia -14.5

Buffalo (+9.5) at New York Jets
Buffalo is just as bad…except no one seems to know. I’m not sure why no one knows this, but they don’t.  Trent Edwards is horrible, T. O. doesn’t give a crap (BEARS, PLEASE DON’T TRADE FOR HIM) and the offensive line isn’t very good, so they can’t open up holes for two pretty talented running backs.

The Jets, meanwhile, are pretty good.  Not convinced about Sanchez’s diety yet, but I really do like their defense.  They’re going to make it too hard for the Bills to score any points and keep this one close. Pick New York Jets -9.5

Last week: 2-2
Season Record: 13-7

Take It To The Bank!! Week 3, NFL Picks!

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By Paul Schmidt

Welcome back to the most exciting part of the weekend!  Actually, I wrote these earlier, and I thought I posted it.  But I didn’t.  Everyone come see how smart I am!!

Last week was a GREAT week…4-0 for the week!  I was due to pick something right eventually, right? 

In all seriousness, I do hope that the last couple of weeks, that you got out and made a little money yourself, because these first couple of weeks of the NFL season are typically the easiest to work with.  The books don’t REALLY have a feel for the teams yet, and that provides all of us with opportunities!

Of course that means that this week there will be LESS opportunity right?  That this week, the powers that be will be getting a handle on things?

Well, not so fast, my friends (channelling my inner Lee Corso!)…This week’s lines present a whole lot of opportunity, which is somewhat surprising.  Usually, when a line looks too good to be true, it probably is and should be sending off gambling alarms that yell, “Danger!  Danger!” in your head.

But this week…maybe we’re getting just one more week of value before the other foot drops.  As always, these are lines from the Harrah’s Casinos in Las Vegas.

Chicago -2.5 at Seattle
Ladies and gentlemen, the Seneca Wallace era!  Look, I don’t typically advocate wagering on the team you pull for, but any time you have a chance to bet against Seneca Wallace, even at home Qwest Field where the Seahawks have an insane home field advantage, you have to do it.
Pick: Chicago -2.5 

Tennessee +2 at New York Jets
I’mabigfan of the Titans.  They’re typically my go-to team after the Bears go away for the season, mainly because…I like the uniforms.  Yes, I’m a woman.

But the greater force at work here is that this is a better football team than we’ve seen this season.  Their defense is better than this (though not as good as last season, it should be mentioned).  Their offense is, as we saw last week, extremely capable.  And this is absolutely a must-win game for them.  This should be an outright win for the Titans.
Pick: Tennessee +2

San Francisco at Minnesota -6.5
I’ve seen this line as high as 7 points, which seems odd for a team that is playing as well as the 49ers are.  The Niners defense has been outstanding, and the offense in the hands of Shaun King has been far better than anticipated.

Meanwhile, Minnesota has not been tested yet, playing two of the worst teams in the NFL in the first two weeks of the season (Lions and Browns) and we still don’t really know what Brett Favre is going to do against a legitimate NFL offense.  This week we get to find out.  And herein is my upset special of the week.  Go nuts on the Niners, bet that money line!!
Pick: San Francisco +6.5

New Orleans at Buffalo +6
The #1 gambling rule of the 2009-2010 NFL season stays in effect:  Do not ever, ever bet against Drew Brees.  In fact, if you’re not wagering on him, you’re missing out. 

I’m not impressed with Buffalo’s defense at all — it’s at least on par with New Orleans’. And therein lies the rub – No one’s offense is as good as the Saints’ and Buffalo is going to be forced to play catch up this week.  The only hope for the Bills is that Fred Jackson goes off early and often, and even if he does, it may not be enough.
Pick: New Orleans -6

Last Week: 4-0
Overall: 6-2

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