By Kent Tukeli
Super Bowl LII is one of the most anticipated sports betting events in the recent history of the big game. Early returns show a 30% increase in the first 24 hours of wagering compared to last year, driven by the underdog accomplishments of the Philadelphia Eagles. The run up to Super Bowl LII reveals vital, unexpected trends which have influenced the numbers offered by sportsbooks as February 4th nears.
Furious Philadelphia Action
Estimates suggest that the United States will collectively place around $4.76 billion worth of wagers on Super Bowl LII, including moneyline, spread and prop bets. The lion’s share of the handle over the first week of wagering has piled on the Eagles.
The Westgate reported that almost 80 percent of the cash flow involved bets on Philadelphia, making them one of the most popular underdogs in recent memory. A Westgate manager stressed that some players still pick the Patriots, but the Eagles were “heavily bet early… seemed like everything was going that way”.
This doesn’t automatically mean that nearly four of five people bet on the Eagles. Potentially, there could be more than 20% of bets placed on the Patriots, with these wagers consisting of smaller amounts.
Bettor X Loves The Philadelphia Eagles Too
During the 2017 World Series, a series of high-stakes bets were placed by a mysterious figure, now known as Bettor X. The reason this anonymous person has become known to the wagering world is because of the carnage experienced by Vegas bookies when the final scores were registered.
Bettor X went on a World Series winning streak which caused Nevada books to lose $11.4 million last November – the worst month of baseball losses in the state. Mr. or Ms. X now sets their sights on the Super Bowl, with an obvious lean towards Philly.
Sportsbooks have reported multiple million-dollar bets for the Eagles, including at least one moneyline wager for an upset at +165 odds. A bunch of six-figure bets on Philadelphia have also splashed around the books, with sources spreading the word that Bettor X is behind much of this action.
Massive Money On Philly Moves The Line
Moneylines and point spreads rarely remain static during the two-week run up to the big game. For Super Bowl LII, so much money has been invested on the Eagles that the lines have swung wildly against the New England Patriots.
Many sportsbooks set their initial lines at -6.0 or -5.5 on behalf of the New England Patriots, making them the largest point spread favorites since 2009, when the Steelers were touchdown favorites against the Arizona Cardinals.
With less than a week before the 2018 Super Bowl, the point spread has shrunk to -4.5 for many bookies, some offering a spread as low as four points. Considering that the Patriots have never won the Super Bowl by more than six points, those who bet on New England beating the spread have a lot more breathing room.
The moneyline for New England has also become less expensive. Depending on the sportsbook you choose, you may find that the Patriots have fallen as low as -180, after starting as favorites with a line greater than -200. Ironically, as more people bet against Tom Brady, the more valuable a bet on the favored Patriots becomes, despite their incredible Super Bowl and playoff history.
Bookies On A Super Bowl Roll Since 1991
All of this early action against the New England Patriots appears to be playing right into the hands of sportsbooks. The Nevada Gaming Control organization has tracked Super Bowl wagering since 1991, revealing that sportsbooks earned profit in 25 of 27 NFL championships.
A New York Giants upset of the Patriots in 2008 and the San Francisco 49ers blowing out the Chargers in 1995 were the only recorded net losses for the industry. Other than those two missteps, the house continues to show an uncanny ability to out-predict the masses. Before hopping on the Philly bandwagon, consider the fact that bookies love a popular, losing underdog.