Who is the NBA’s Best Bet to Hit an Under?

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With two of the best scorers in the game in James Harden and Russell Westbrook, the Rockets are one of the most exciting offensive teams in the NBA. They also happen to be one of the most popular NBA picks against the spread, but probably not for reasons you think. Just looking at that firepower, you might be tempted to hit the over when the Rockets play. After all, they are second in the NBA in scoring with 118.1 points per game led by Harden’s league leading 34.4 points per game and Westbrook’s 27.5 points per game, which is 7th in the NBA. Only the Milwaukee Bucks score more points than the Rockets.

But throw those scoring numbers aside when betting the total in Rockets games. The fact is, the Rockets are the flat out worst teams when it comes to NBA over under betting, more specifically when picked to hit the over, making it just 43.8% of the time. 

The smart money is to take the under when the Rockets play as you’d win that bet 56.2% of the time, which is the best percentage in the NBA this season. The Clippers are second in the under at 54% and the Warriors are third at 53.8%. The Clippers make sense, as they play great defense and the Warriors make sense because, well, they’re terrible.

But the Rockets? It just makes no sense. They are not a very good defensive team, ranking 22nd in points allowed, giving up 114.4 per game.

What it means is Vegas is really over-inflating the Rockets point totals. They see the superstars and the per game scoring average and the relative lack of defense and they set the number too high. It’s not even like the Rockets were good in the over last season. In 2018-19 they ranked near the bottom of the league, hitting the over just 46% of the time. Conversely, the Rockets hit the under 54% of the time last year.

So, when play resumes in August, keep these trends in mind. Vegas has been wrong about the Rockets for the past two years, so the smart money looks to be on the Rockets in the under. If you are going to be betting the NBA when play resumes make sure you take a look at these betting sign up offers. Sportsbooks in your area are giving away free money to play with once you create an account. 

 

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