GREEN BAY PACKERS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
If Brett Favre, Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice can all play then Minnesota is actually a slight 50.1 percent favorite. If any one or more of them are out or slowed down then the Packers are at least the 55 percent favorite. Minnesota has a chance of the defense and RB Adrian Peterson dominate. When Peterson has 75+ rushing yards and the defense sacks Aaron Rodgers 4 or more times then Minnesota wins 72 percent of the time. But when the Vikings sack Rodgers no more than twice and Peterson averages under 4 ypc then Packers dominate winning 77 percent.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
The 49ers playoff hopes are still alive but this game is a virtual coin flip with the 49ers winning 50 percent and Tampa Bay just under that with a small chance of a tie. Josh Freeman has a slight statistical edge over Troy Smith with 229 yards vs 218 yards and an overall rating of 85 vs Troy Smith at 79 in simulations. The 49ers have the edge on the ground with Gore averaging 86 yards on 20 carries and LaGarrette Blount 60 yards on 17 carries (3.5 ypc). If Blount averages over 4 ypc the Bucs have a 56 percent chance of winning, but if Gore has at least 75 yards and 1 TD then San Francisco is a heavy 72 percent favorite.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
it is too early to tell who might be playing RB for the Saints, but as long as Drew Brees is there with his projected 290 yards, 2 TDs on 73 percent completion percentage, New Orleans should win. The Saints are heavy 85 percent favorites thanks to Brees. Brees has had 3 multiple interception games this season and if he has 2 or more INTs the Seahawks improve from 15 to 33 percent. If Seattle get 2+ INTs, Matt Hasselbeck throws no INTs and Hasselbeck has at least 1 TD pass the Seahawks pull ahead winning 54 percent.
ATLANTA FALCONS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS
The Falcons have been much better at home than on the road, but they are still 60 percent favorites vs the Rams thanks to a balanced offensive attack. Matt Ryan has a 2 to 1 TD to Int ratio in simulations and Michael Turner is averaging over 90 yards with a 51 percent chance of rushing for at least 1 TD. If the Rams defense holds Turner to under 75 yards and no more than 1 rushing TD then St. Louis is the 60 percent favorite. Sam Bradford is projected for a good game with a simulation rating of 87. If Bradford throws no interceptions and Steven Jackson rushes for at least 50 yards the Rams are the 57 percent favorite.
DETROIT LIONS @ DALLAS COWBOYS
The Cowboys offense finally looked great without Tony Romo. There is still a high 37 percent chance that Jon Kitna throws multiple interceptions, but he is also averaging 270 passing yards and 1.5 TDs per sim. The Cowboys should be able to run well against Detroit. There is a 45 percent chance that Felix Jones has at least 75 rushing yards and if he does the Cowboys win 83 percent of the time. Dez Bryant is projected to lead the Cowboys in receiving. If Bryant has 75+ receiving yards and Jon Kitna has no more than 1 INT then Dallas should cruise with a 78 percent chance of winning.
NEW YORK GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
When Michael Vick is healthy the Eagles offense looks completely unstoppable. The Giants could not contain the Cowboys and now the Eagles are projected for nearly 30 points. Vick is averaging 2 TD passes and another 50 yards rushing on 7.3 ypc. There is only a 48 percent chance that Vick throws an INT vs a 65 percent chance that Eli Manning throws one or more INTs. If the Giants commit fewer turnovers than the Eagles the Giants are the 70 percent favorites, but if the Eagles commit fewer turnovers they are the heavy 79 percent favorite. If Ahmad Bradshaw has 75+ rushing yards and 1 TD and can keep the Eagles offense off the field the Giants are favored 62 percent.
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