In politics they call it an “October Surprise,” huge game-changing news that doesn’t get leaked until very close to the election. The NFL Draft, like the Presidential election, has months of advance anticipation and speculation.
Jameis Winston might provide the most expected and obvious NFL Draft “October Surprise” ever this year.
Jameis Winston is probably the most scrutinized college football player in the history of the sport. (Tim Tebow was probably more blanketed in terms of coverage, but because he’s a perfect little angel, he didn’t face the scrutiny)
There’s a reason Winston was talked about so much and it goes beyond the fact that he’s been a boon to ESPN’s Nielsen numbers. Winston has probably more character red flags than any top tier, blue chip prospect in NFL Draft in recent memory.
Of course, a lot of that is due to the media age we live in.
There have been plenty of similarly elite athletes who made numerous mistakes off the field like Winston has, but they played and lived in an era where privacy still existed. Jameis Winston does not.
“You have to do some work on him from an intangibles, from an off the field standpoint,” said ESPN Analyst Mel Kiper Jr on conference call this week.
“If Winston checks out between now and April, and you can reconcile all that, and it’s all behind him and he’s matured and it’s not gong to happen again, then he’s goes #1, and Mariota would go second, sixth, somewhere in the top ten, maybe Chip Kelly and Philadelphia try to trade up to get him,” he continued.
That’s right- Jameis Winston, despite all the legal issues and character red flags, could still go number one overall. Winston makes poor decisions off the field, but he makes brilliant decisions on the field. His production, his game, and his measurables are all franchise building block material.
However, it’s the classic Bull Durham line: “million dollar arm, ten cent head.”
Another red flag emerged in his final game. When the Rose Bowl got slightly out of hand in the third quarter, ESPN Analyst Kirk Herbstreit, in the midst of calling the game, said “Florida State has quit. They have shut down the operations.”
This was at a point in which Oregon had a comfortable, but not insurmountable lead.
Hearing an announcer admit that a team in a game he’s calling is quitting is exceedingly rare; 1-10,000 rare. A huge part of every announcer’s job is to make the game as compelling as possible; so the audience remains engaged.
Herbstreit wasn’t the only person deeply involved with that game who publicly said FSU phoned it in.
Oregon Center Hroniss Grasu said after the Rose Bowl and in prelude to the national title game:
“(Ohio State) won’t quit on a play. Florida State, they’d stop after one move. These guys, they won’t quit on a play.”
You also had that bizarre fumble that was GIFed and Memed all over. A Heisman Trophy winner and National Champion, all of a sudden, lets the ball slip right out of his hands despite being in perfect weather conditions and under no immediate pressure at all from the opposing defense?
Weird.
That play was the most obvious, but there were a couple other uncharacteristic Jameis Winston turnovers. They looked fishy.
Yet despite all this he might still go #1. Yes, despite the less than whole-hearted effort in the Rose Bowl, he really could be the first player chosen. Unless of course we get an October Surprise in April or March; and Jameis Winston does something to get in trouble again. Or new evidence of past transgressions is made public.
If so, it would surprise no one at this point.
Paul M. Banks owns, operates and writes The Sports Bank.net, which is partnered with Fox Sports Digital, eBay, Google News and CBS Interactive Inc. You can read Banks’ feature stories in the Chicago Tribune RedEye newspaper and listen to him on KOZN 1620 The Zone. Follow him on Twitter (@paulmbanks)