Carmelo Anthony this. Carmelo Anthony that.
What about Lance Stephenson? Which player’s addition is more realistic? Would Lance Stephenson help the Bulls reemerge as championship contenders?
Much will hinge on the health of star point guard Derrick Rose, who’s been limited to ten games the past two seasons. But a healthy Rose, assuming he returns to MVP fashion, will not be enough. The Bulls need more.
The Bulls will have approximately $64 million on their books. The salary cap for next season is expected to be set at approximately $62 million. The most seamless way the Bulls can gain valuable cap space is by using the one-time amnesty provision on the final year of forward Carlos Boozer’s contract, worth $16.8 million. The Bulls could be left with approximately $51 million of cap space responsibilities when factoring in cap holds for every roster spot opening below the 12-player minimum and other cap holds and after renouncing rights to their own free agents. In other words, the Bulls would have around $11 million in cap space.
Rumors are swirling that the Bulls might be the preferred destination for New York Knicks star forward and pending free agent Carmelo Anthony. The two most likely scenarios it would take to land Anthony seem unlikely.
The Bulls could orchestrate a sign-and-trade involving Boozer, Mike Dunleavy and a slew of first round picks. The benefits of this scenario would be that Anthony’s salary would exceed $20 million and the Bulls would not disrupt their core. As a team over the cap but below the tax threshold of $76 million, the Bulls could still bring in European sensation Nikola Mirotic for the full mid-level exception, which we previously discussed, and not the taxpayer’s exception of less than half of that amount, at which he might balk.
Assuming the Knicks found this deal palatable–and their leverage would be limited if Anthony threatened to bolt for nothing–the Bulls would explode into the luxury tax when they extended swingman Jimmy Butler as early as this October, not to mention that center Joakim Noah will be due a sizeable raise after two more seasons.
However, Bulls’ management has given no indication that it is willing to lay the framework for a $100 million roster until after, not before, it has won a championship.
The second method the Bulls could use to acquire Anthony is through cap space, just as the Houston Rockets did to land Dwight Howard last summer. How serious is Anthony, who will have earned approximately $136 million in career salary through this season, about winning a championship? Will he take a significant discount to maximize the Bulls’ championship? Would he force the Bulls to sell the contract of Mike Dunleavy to a team under the salary cap and to trade both of their number one draft picks for future selections to fetch a contract worth about $15-16 million?
That would be reasonable even if it meant that Mirotic would likely not be able to join the Bulls until the following season because the Bulls’ would be ineligible to use the cap exceptions to bring him stateside and would lack cap space to sign him after exhausting it on Anthony.
If accommodating Anthony requires trading off the contracts of Butler and/or Taj Gibson to create additional cap space, then that would be a bridge too far. While Butler might not be having a great year offensively, almost entirely attributable to playing off-guard instead of his natural small-forward position at which he flourished last season, he has been a brick wall defensively.
John Hollinger’s Performance Efficiency Rating (PER), while not flawless, is considered the gold-standard for evaluating players’ overall impact. Butler’s opponent’s PER is second best in the NBA at 9.9, and he draws some of the most difficult defensive assignments night in and night out. He did a masterful job yesterday guarding arguably the NBA’s most difficult cover in Miami Heat forward Lebron James in a critical Bulls win.
Meanwhile, Gibson is one of only 24 players and just four power forwards with an above-average PER and below-average opponent’s PER. He also leads the Bulls in points scored, and in eight starts, the unselfish reserve is averaging 19.3 points, 9.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.8 blocks on 49.6% shooting.
If Anthony wants to join Butler and Gibson in the championship pursuit, the Bulls should roll out the red carpet. If they would be casualties of him joining the team, the Bulls must find another way.
The alternative is Indiana Pacers’ star swingman Lance Stephenson. Stephenson, more than six years younger than Anthony, can probably be obtained with the cap space the Bulls would gain just from amnestying Boozer. They would also likely have enough cap space left over to retain season-saving point guard D.J. Augustin.
What is the allure of Lance Stephenson?
If they acquired him, the Bulls would be prying away a valuable asset from their biggest division rival. Lance Stephenson has improved markedly in each of his four years in the league, leading the NBA this season in triple doubles and averaging 14.0 points, 7.0 rebounds and 5.1 assists on 49.3% shooting overall and 33.5% three-point shooting.
Meanwhile, Lance Stephenson plays Butler-like defense, ranking third in opponent’s PER, at 10.6. A core of a healthy Rose, Noah, Gibson, Butler, Stephenson, Augustin, Mirotic and Tony Snell, whose first season has actually been more productive than Butler’s rookie campaign, with some modest veteran additions, perhaps including Dunleavy, Hinrich and the venerable Nzar Mohammed, could challenge anyone for a title.
As we previously wrote, Indiana will soon have to dole out huge money to retain center Roy Hibbert and forward David West. Retaining Stephenson as well might not be possible for the small-market Pacers.
Of course, straight up Anthony is a better piece for the Bulls’ championship aspirations. But if Lance Stephenson can be had without disrupting the Bulls’ incredibly cohesive and productive core, and Anthony cannot, Stephenson would be a far better fit.