This year’s McDonald’s All-American Game in Chicago had two Illini basketball related themes to it (sort of); despite the fact that zero Illini basketball commits played in it. A record high eight undecideds played at the United Center that night, and Illinois is not on the final list for any of these prospects.
The first Illini theme, which has been more over-played and shopworn than Katy Perry, is the list of 5-star prospects that Illinois “finished second or third” on. The McDAAG roster has a few names familiar to Illini basketball fans; they are guys who proverbially friend-zoned John Groce.
This story-line has been recycled so many times that we’ll move right on without rehashing it.
The second Illini basketball story-line, which we’ll also spend very little time on, because it’s been discussed to death over the years, is the Simeon-Illinois “pipeline.” One of the coaches in tonight’s game is Simeon’s Robert Smith, and he’s a much more interesting soundbite than John Groce.
With three of Smith’s former players (Jaylon Tate, Kendrick Nunn, and now incoming frosh D.J. Williams) on the Illini basketball roster this upcoming season, Smith is a good source to preview the upcoming season. Often you can get a better perspective on things from someone a little more distance and objectivity. Also, Smith is typically more honest and informative in interviews while Groce usually deals out more corporate spin.
At McDAAAG Media Day, we asked Smith about what Williams will bring to the table:
“He can play three positions, maybe four, in college. He has a great upside, but he needs to get stronger, tougher. I think he can get major minutes right away, I don’t know about starting, but I think he can get major minutes.”
On Jaylon Tate’s sophomore year:
“I thought he was going to be just who he is. He needs to get a little more confident in shooting the ball when he’s open. he was able to run a team, that’s a given but he needs to be a threat when he’s out there on the offensive end as well.”
“I think he did a good job of holding it down this year, I didn’t think he really thought he was going to get those many minutes, I think he was kind of thrown into it, but he did a great job for the ball club.”
“The offseason is going to be really big for him, he’s going to have to hit the weights and get a little bit stronger, and stay in the gym and work on his jump shot.”
When it comes down to it 2015-16 Illini basketball has the same issues as 2014-15 Illini basketball- still no point guard and no bigs. In fact, they might even have to play smaller next year.
Will it be yet another year on the NCAA/NIT bubble for John Groce? Actually, it might even be worse than that. You can break it down by asking yourself three questions:
1. Do you expect Jalen Coleman-Lands to step in right away and replace Rayvonte Rice?
JCL is playing in the Jordan Brand Classic; so Illini basketball will not be shut out of the All-Star showcase games this spring. The PR flak who wrote up the JBC describes Coleman-Lands as “potentially the best shooter in the nation.”
Even if that’s true, it means he’ll be next year’s James Blackmon Jr. That’s great, but it’s still not enough to replace Rice. It may seem unfair to compare Rice and Coleman-Lands, but when you realize that you’re analogizing the most talented and gifted player on the Illini basketball roster, the guy who needs to take and make the most shots in a given game, it’s actually a natural comparison.
2. Do you expect Darius Paul to come in right away and replace Nnanna Egwu?
Can Paul stay healthy and out of trouble? We know he won’t be as dominant defensively as Egwu, but maybe he compensates by contributing something on the offensive end; which Egwu did not.
3. Can the return of Tracy Abrams carry Illinois back into the NCAA Tourney?
Abrams is a fine, solid college player, but he’s not a first team all conference kind of player. Illinois needs a first team all-big ten talent added to the current squad in order to win 3-4 more games to be NCAA Tournament level competitive again. This year’s team really missed Abrams’ toughness and leadership, and the Illini likely would have won a game or two more here and there in 2014-15 had Abrams been there to give them a true floor general.
However, he’s not a Melo Trimble like difference maker. Trimble gives Maryland a true college point guard, which is something Tracy is not, and something Illinois will still lack next year. Abrams is a good off guard, and an upgrade over the Ahmad Starks/Aaron Cosby duo.
Given what a disastrous campaign Cosby had, losing him might be addition by subtraction. Results of Starks’ one season in Champaign was mixed. Abrams improves the Illini off the ball situation, but he doesn’t improve it enough to make this team a Big Ten upper division side.
4. Since, the answer to these three previous questions is likely no, will Kendrick Nunn, Jaylon Tate and Malcolm Hill all develop further and coalesce together to compensate for the realities addressed in numbers one through three?
Smith on Kendrick Nunn:
“He’s a great player, was a top 75 kid when he left high school, he just needs to be a little more consistent. He made some big strides but like me and him talked about, he needs to be a little more consistent.”
Malcolm Hill will be the Illini basketball alpha dog next year. You know he’ll be alright. I spoke with scouts from two different NBA teams during the Big Ten Tournament, and Hill is the only member of the 2014-15 roster who even registers. Hill is the only guy on this past year’s team who has any shot at a NBA future.
Again Illini basketball may be bringing in their best recruiting class in awhile (yet there’s still nobody in the McDAAG game), but they will be a smaller, younger, more inexperienced team. They still won’t have any answers at the one or the five either. Also, the Big Ten is not getting any worse either.
It’s hard to say that things will get any better any time soon. The All-American Game has been in Chicago every year since 2011; and there have been zero Illini basketball signees in the game each and every year. There’s also been a lot of Chicago area prospects playing in those All-Star games over the years.
So while we’re used to seeing the top local talent leave the state and head off to Duke, Kentucky, Kansas et al. (It’s been a normal spring rite of passage at this point), this year we seem to be a little more impatient about it. The Illini basketball community has truly nearing the end of their rope waiting for things to finally turn around.
Who knows when that will be because they truly face a chicken-or-the-egg problem when it comes to recruiting talent.
Here’s the link to our 2015-16 top 25 national rankings.
That said, here’s our extremely early projection of how the Big Ten race shapes out in 2015-16.
1. Maryland (link to 2015-16 Maryland season preview)
2. Michigan State (link to 2015-16 MSU season preview)
3. Michigan (Wolverines make our 5 non-NCAA Tournament teams who will go dancing next year)
4. Indiana
5. Wisconsin (Badgers make our 5 elite teams who take a step back next season list)
6. Purdue
7. Ohio State
8. Iowa
9. Minnesota
10. Illinois (link to 2015-16 Illinois season preview)
11. Northwestern
12. Penn State
13. Nebraska
14. Rutgers
Paul M. Banks owns, operates and writes The Sports Bank.net, which is partnered with Fox Sports Digital. You can read Banks’ feature stories and op-eds in the Chicago Tribune RedEye newspaper and hear his regular guest spots on numerous sports talk radio stations all across the country.
Follow him on Twitter (@paulmbanks)