Among the top European leagues, it is fair to say that France’s Ligue 1 is one of the least intriguing. It has become Paris Saint-Germain’s toy house in recent years, while the other teams on the coattails of the Parisians have barely put up a fight in the face of the onslaught. This season, however, has witnessed a stuttering PSG, and also the emergence of new title favourites in OGC Nice and Monaco.
Heading into the midway point of the season that culminates in a winter break, PSG are seven points off the top, where the incumbents Nice. Managed by Lucien Favre, Nice have lost only once this season and conceded the fewest goals. They are followed in second place by Monaco, who have scored 54 goals so far at three goals per game.
Lyon are the other team that can be clubbed together with the title challengers, mainly because of the numbers they have produced this season. Bruno Genesio’s men showed a statement of intent last weekend with a 3-1 win at Monaco.
With 43 points, Nice are well-placed to stop PSG’s quest for a fifth straight Ligue 1 title, whereas Monaco seem to be having one of those seasons where every other shot on target ends in a goal. PSG, meanwhile, are yet to fully assimilate coach Unai Emery’s methods. Although PSG are still favourites in the Ligue 1 betting odds to win the title this season, that has more to do with their pedigree than their form this season. The champions have lost more games this season at the halfway stage than they did in the entirety of the 2015/16 campaign.
PSG have posted decent underlying numbers this season, yet an inability to find a ruthless streak in the post-Zlatan era has seen them drop 18 points in 18 games. Edinson Cavani is the league’s top scorer with 17 goals, accounting for more than half of PSG’s scoring strikes.
On the other hand, Nice have been over performing their numbers and a level of regression is expected in the second half of the campaign. But Favre is known for defying expectations, hence Nice’s good run could lead them all the way to the title. Nice have posted the 12th lowest shots per game while conceding the fourth most shots per game. Yet, they have the most miserly defence in the league, and their 34 goals is the second best tally behind Monaco’s.
Leonardo Jardim’s Monaco have had an advantage of having their goalscoring responsibilities more spread out this season. Unlike Cavani for PSG, Radamel Falcao’s ten goals make for only 18 percent of Monaco’s tally of 54, while the likes of Thomas Lemar, Guido Carrillo, Valere Germain and Fabinho have also chipped in with the goals. Eking goals out from all around the pitch makes Monaco less dependent on the exploits of a single player.
In the second half of the season, all of PSG, Monaco and Lyon will have to contend with continental exertions, while Nice will have none of that after their Europa League group stage exit. PSG faces Barcelona and Monaco squares off with Manchester City in the Champions League round of 16.
Lyon take on AZ Alkmaar in the Europa League knockouts.
Fixture congestion could be a key factor in the Ligue 1 title race, going by the top teams’ European commitments. It is there that Nice have an advantage. Another thing to keep in mind for the rest of the campaign is the head to head games for the title challengers.
PSG have home games against Monaco and Lyon, and travel to Nice. On the other hand, Monaco have back-to-back league games against PSG and Nice at the end of January 2017, two games that could well shape the destiny of the title race. Nice, meanwhile, have away games against Monaco and Lyon in the second half of the campaign, but their strong showings in the reverse fixtures will have them confident.
Lyon are the outsiders in the title race, but it is far from over for third-placed PSG considering their resources. Nice and Monaco are punching above their respective weights by virtue of inventive tactical and personnel choices. This season, at long last, it wouldn’t really be a surprise should PSG fail to defend their title.