Northwestern Can Win Their Bowl Game (Really)

By Paul M. Banks

Despite having a higher record and better national ranking than their opponent, #20 Northwestern (9-3) finds themselves the biggest underdog of the bowl season to #23 Missouri (9-4) in Monday night’s Alamo Bowl. Odds-makers have the Tigers a two touchdown favorite over the Wildcats in this San Antonio battle of los gatos peligrosos. On paper, it’s strength versus strength: Northwestern’s 23rd ranking scoring defense versus Mizzou’s 6th ranked offense. If NU wins this side of the ball, they should have their first bowl victory since 1949.

Throw your Hands in the Air…as if you’re Unconcerned

Missouri has huge playmakers everywhere on offense- senior QB Chase Daniel (358 of 484-4,135-37 TDs-15 INT) who often finds electrifying WR Jeremy Maclin (95-1,221-12 TDs) and TE Chase Coffman (83-920-10 TDs). Oh, and the backup QB is named Chase Patton, just in case you thought this team didn’t have enough people with that obscure first name already. (Does Missouri have Chase Bank as one of their sponsors?) And don’t forget tailback Derrick Washington (162-992-17 TDs).

Daniel’s NFL Draft stock is about as high valued as Washington Mutual due to his lack of size. He’s listed at 6’0”, but in reality he’s as close to being 6 as I am to being 9 feet tall. NU’s primary strength this year has been their defensive line, so when they get near Daniel, they must “throw their hands way up in the air and wave ‘em around like you just don’t care,” to disrupt Chase’s passing-lanes vision or (better yet) deflect his passes and hopefully pick off a couple. This is highly doable considering team MVP and DE Corey Wootton  is 6’7”, NFL bound DT John Gill is 6’3,” and the rest of the line is that height or taller.

I asked Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year finalist and NU head man Pat Fitzgerald about employing this strategy at the bowl selection announcement presser. “Chase from a quarterback standpoint, maybe he’s not the tallest guy, but he’s very athletic; makes a lot of plays and does a good job extending the plays,” Fitz responded, also adding prior “Like 118 other schools across the country we made a mistake in not recruiting him.”

Familiarity Breeds Contempt

Mizzou, like Northwestern runs the spread-option- currently college football’s sexy offense. In theory, this should help both defenses, but I see this as advantageous to the boys in purple because 1.) First year defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz is stellar and much better than anyone on the opposite sideline and 2.) Mizzou’s secondary shows no interest in covering and tackling anybody. Other than that though, they’re fine. Jordan Mabin is a Sporting News Freshman All-America corner for NU. “We go against our offense each day, so we’re used to the spread. They run a little different type of spread; they have a lot of trick plays in a lot of different formations. Our coaches are putting us in a great situation and will do a great job preparing us for what it’s going to be like,” Mabin said.

Secondary of Primary Importance

“We can’t get into an arms race with them, they’re an explosive offense so if we’re competing with them we’re doing things that are out of character,” Wildcats quarterback C.J. Bacher said at bowl media day.

I agree, Bacher and company can’t win the game if the scoring is in the 50s, although he will be helped by having Tyrell Sutton (who will likely bypass Darnell Autry to become the second leading rusher in school history Monday night) back from injury. Bacher will probably connect with leading receiver and ARA National Sportsmanship award winner Eric Peterman quite a bit too.

However, it’s more important the defense limit Mizzou’s high-octane machine. One of the biggest reasons NU is poised to tie the school record for wins in a season is the consistently stellar play of safeties Brendan Smith and Brad Phillips. They along with corner Sherrick McMannis, were All-Big Ten honorable mention, so these Cats do pounce on mistakes made by opposing quarterbacks.

Prediction- Northwestern 28, Missouri 24. Is 2008 the year of the underdog? Ask the Celtics, Giants, and Phillies!  Or maybe I’m just drinking purple colored Kool-Aid.

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